Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report review: a sharp increase in performance continues high boom

Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report review: a sharp increase in performance continues high boom

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report with an operating income of 25.

7.8 billion, an increase of 19 in ten years.

12%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

2 billion, an increase of 294 previously.

At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan for every 10 shares and increase 5 shares.

Since 2018, the prosperity of the poultry chain has been rising, and the price has continued to reach new highs to promote the company’s performance growth.

And the single quarter net profit for the first four quarters was 0.

3.1 billion, 0.

5.8 billion, 1.

3.1 billion and 1.

8.2 billion, a significant improvement quarter by quarter.

The high prosperity of the bird chain continued in the first quarter of 2019, and the company’s performance again exceeded expectations.

Quarterly report for January 2019, the company realized operating income of 7.

35 trillion, an increase of 62 in ten years.

44%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

56 billion, an increase of 407 a year.


Comments: The cycle goes up, the amount of profit and the same increase. In 2018, the company released a total of white chickens.

1.7 billion birds, a slight increase of 0 previously.


The company’s broilers are mainly used to sell frozen chicken products after slaughter, and only a small part is exported directly.

18 years company processed food 28.

34 for the first time, growing by 6 per year.

35%, if calculated based on this, the company’s 18-year chicken sales price is 8564 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.


At the same time, due to the commissioning of Xian Food, Hong Food and other subsidiaries, the company’s self-use rate from 17 to 95.

13% increased to 98%.

Too many introductions in the short term and do not have to worry too much, the high prosperity of the poultry chain is expected to continue. The recent high monthly introduction data and the expected resumption of French customs have caused market changes. We believe that the poultry chain will maintain a high prosperity in 19-20 years:Introduced in 2018 is still gradually balanced, and supply is still scarce.

At the time of the resumption in France, the persistence of high introduction needs to be observed; 2) African swine fever leads to pork resupply, and the increase in pig prices will drive up the prices of other protein products.

3) In the short term, seedling prices are still high, supporting the price of chickens.

The second quarter is the off-season of demand, and the price of poultry chains will improve. From the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, the price of poultry chains will reopen a new round of rapid advancement.

Earnings forecast, investment rating: The price of poultry chain has risen faster than expected. In view of the first quarter performance forecast, we have raised the company’s EPS forecast for 19-20 to 2.

53 yuan, 2.

70 yuan, while supplementing the 21-year EPS forecast is 2.

88 yuan.

The current company’s 19-year estimate is only 10 times, which has certain evaluation advantages.

We continue to be bullish on the company and maintain a 南京桑拿论坛 “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Product price rise is less than expected risk.

Double Arrow (002381): Three quarterly reports continue to be strong, new capacity is about to be put into production

Double Arrow (002381): Three quarterly reports continue to be strong, new capacity is about to be put into production

Results announcement: The company announced that it is expected to return to net profit for the first three quarters of 20191.


0 billion, 50% growth in ten years?
70%; third quarter profit was 5,796.


60,000, an increase of 21 a year.



The effect of high-end conveyor is remarkable: with reference to the conveyor belt price index, the price of the rubber conveyor belt industry has been relatively stable since 2017.

The rise in the industry’s prosperity is mainly due to the clearing of backward production capacity and the withdrawal of inferior products from the market.

As a leader in rubber conveyor belts, the company fully leverages its advantages in scale, technology and management, adjusts its product structure, increases the proportion of high-end products, and further increases its product gross profit margin.

New conveyor belt products were launched strongly, and new production capacity ushered in production in the fourth quarter: the company launched ceramic conveyor belts, RopeCon cableway conveyor belts, aramid duct conveyor belts, overall steel mesh anti-tearing conveyor belts, and overall fabric impact resistant conveyor belts in the first half of the year.7 new conveyor belt products, impact-resistant conveyor belt and ultra-wear-resistant conveyor belt, further expand and meet customers’ requirements for conveyor belts in various 杭州桑拿 industries, improve the short life and high energy consumption of traditional conveyor belts in the industry, and long-distance transportationThe advantages of taking the alternative to truck transportation have been highlighted, and breakthrough performance growth has been achieved.

The company currently has a capacity of approximately 40 million square meters and full orders.

In the fourth quarter, the company’s 10 million square meters is expected to be put into production, with a capacity increase of about 25%, which will continue to contribute to the 2020 performance growth.

Further promoted the development of integrated medical care and nutrition, and the profit model gradually became clear: the company announced that the subsidiary Heji Company had signed the “Entrusted Operation Contract for the Zhouquan Town Senior Care Service Center” with the People’s Government of Zhouquan Town of Tongxiang, Hosting the Zhouquan Town Senior Care Center.

The headquarters of Heji Company established Tongxiang Heji Nursing Home Co., Ltd. to promote the development of integrated medical care.

The company promotes external expansion with an asset-light pension model, and continues to expand market development efforts on the basis of ensuring high-quality and stable service quality.

Investment advice: The company is expected to have EPS 0 in 2019-2021.



82 yuan, maintain Buy-A rating, 6-month target price of 12.

2 yuan, corresponding to PE 20/16/15 times.

Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, market competition intensifies, and production projects are less than expected.

Shenzhen Gas (601139): Results Exceed Expectations, Promising Profit Outlook for Receiving Stations

Shenzhen Gas (601139): Results Exceed Expectations, Promising Profit Outlook 杭州桑拿洗浴会所 for Receiving Stations

The performance is lower than expected, and continues to be optimistic about the company’s future development potential. According to the company’s performance report, the company’s operating income in 2019 / net profit attributable to mothers / net profit attributable to non-mothers will be 140.



200 million, ten years +10.

0% / + 2.

3% / + 4.

2%, lower than expected performance, mainly due to 19Q4 increase in blood sugar and goodwill impairment.

We revise the profit forecast for 2019, taking into account that the company’s receiving station profit prospects are expected, and maintain the 20-21 year performance forecast, it is expected to return to the mother net profit in 19-21.



0 million yuan (previous value was 12.



0 million), corresponding to EPS 0.



59 yuan (previous value was 0.



59 yuan), given a 20-year target P / E 17.

5-18 years old.

5x, corresponding to a target price of 8.


25 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

The lower-than-expected results were mainly due to the increase in revenue in 19Q4 and impairment of goodwill.



200 million, ten years +10.

0% / + 2.

3% / + 4.

2%, of which the company’s natural gas sales income is 90%.

6 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.


According to the company announcement, the company achieved profitability in 19Q4.

3.7 billion, -27% before, the performance exceeded expectations. The main reasons are: 1) the company’s goodwill impairment of the company’s merger and acquisition projects was about 45 million; 2) due to the adjustment of the return rate, the company’s turnover income increased by approximately 80 million in 19Q4; 3) due to the company’s assetsThe scale continued to expand, and depreciation of assets such as pipe networks increased by approximately 20 million.

In the fourth quarter, the factory’s gas sales volume continued to grow at a high rate. The gas sales volume in 2019 increased by 14%. The company’s operating revenue in 2019 increased by 10%.

0%, in terms of business: 1) 90% revenue from gas sales.

60,000 yuan (ten years + 13.6%), mainly for each increase in gas sales by + 14% to 31.

500 million cubic meters, benefiting from the development of new users such as aesthetic plants, the company’s power plant’s gas sales continued to improve, and the 19Q4 power plant’s gas sales reached 2.

6 billion cubic meters, the previous growth rate was as high as 64%, driving the annual gas sales of 19 axial power plants +13.

6%, non-power plant gas sales increase by +14.

1%, taking into account the expansion of the company’s low-cost LNG gas source cost advantage, the future development trend will further increase the gas supply market share of gas power plants in Guangdong; 2) LPG business revenue 19.

9 ‰, at least -22.


The profitability of LNG receiving stations is outstanding, and the company’s performance is expected to significantly increase in the future. The existing company ‘s LNG receiving stations with an annual turnover of 1 billion cubic meters have been officially operated. We believe that LNG receiving stations will fully benefit from this and bring more profitable space in the future.We estimate that the turnover of the terminal in 2020 is expected to reach about 600 million cubic meters (about 50 index), and the profit contributed after full production is expected to reach 4-5 trillion points, which will significantly increase the company’s performance.

Continue to be optimistic about the company ‘s prospects and maintain a “Buy” rating. According to the company ‘s performance report, we revise the 19-year profit forecast, but considering that the company ‘s receiving station profit outlook is expected, maintain the 20-21-year performance forecast and expect to return to the mother in 19-21Net profit 10.



0 billion (previous value was 12.



0 million), corresponding to EPS 0.



59 yuan (previous value was 0.



59 yuan), refer to comparable company’s 20-year P / E average of 12.

3x, benefiting from the operation of the receiving station, the company has excellent growth, and should give a 20-year target P / E 17 for a certain premium of copyright.

5-18 years old.

5x, corresponding to a target price of 8.


25 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: domestic gas price and sales risk, overseas gas price risk, RMB exchange rate change risk

Credit Risks Frequently Exceeded 14.5 Billion Credit Defaults During the Year

Credit Risks Frequently Exceeded 14.5 Billion Credit Defaults During the Year

“The worst debt ever issued!

“In the face of the embarrassing situation that Oriental Garden (002310, SZ) planned to issue 1 billion debts but only raised 都市夜网 50 million yuan, on May 21, some media described it.

“Daily Economic News” reporter noticed that behind the difficulties of Oriental Garden’s debt financing, frequent credit defaults, corporate debt crisis, and asset management product risk events, and many of the story “protagonists” are listed companies.

  ”Daily Economic News” reporter statistics found that since this year (as of May 19), 17 credit bonds have defaulted, involving 10 issuers; the total amount of default is 145.

6.4 billion, an annual increase of 36.

twenty four%.

Among the issuers involved are multinational listed companies such as Rich Bird (Hong Kong stock 01919), Kaidi Eco, ST Zhongan.

  From the perspective of debt defaults of large listed companies, the issuers of credit bond defaults in 2018 were Rich Bird, Kaidi Eco, ST Zhongan, Chunhe 杭州桑拿 Group, Yiyang Group, Shenwu Environmental Protection, Dandong Port, Zhongcheng Construction, Dalian Machine Tool.And Sichuan Coal Group.

Among them, Dandong Port, Dalian Machine Tool and other companies have defaulted many times during the year.

  ”Daily Economic News” reporter noted that in early May, large private enterprises in Zhejiang Province, selected for many years as “Top 500 Chinese Enterprises,” Dunan Group was shocked to cover up the debt crisis.

Fortunately, Dunan Group is currently in breach of contract again.

But not all publishers are so lucky.

Within one week from May 7 to 13, successive listed companies announced successive debt defaults.

  For example, * ST Zhongan announced on May 7 that due to the overall market environment, the company’s multiple accounts receivables replaced the company’s return at the expected time, resulting in the company’s current liquidity tensions, unable to pay the bond principal and interest on time, “15 China Security” bond default.

Kaidi Eco also announced on the same day that the company’s medium-term bill “11 Kaidi MTN1” could not be paid on time.

Kaidi Eco said that the company has worked hard to raise funds for the current period of medium-term bills through multiple channels, but still paid the funds in full according to the agreed financing measures.

  In fact, at least a number of defaults have occurred in the bond market, and some asset management products and other debts have also begun to default.

  On April 27, CLP Investment Finance announced that the company’s “CLP Investment Finance-Ruijin No. 1 Asset Management Plan” and “CLP Investment Finance-Ruijin No. 2 Asset Management Plan” were delayed for three or four periods.

It is reported that the Ruijin project is divided into four phases with a total scale of 500 million yuan.

Among them, the first and second installments were successfully redeemed in April this year.

  On May 10th, Shengyun Environmental Protection announced that due to difficulties in turnover, the company had partially terminated its debts and paid off its debts.

2.9 billion yuan.

This matter may affect the confidence of other creditors in the company, which will further reduce the company’s financing capacity, and the company will face an intensified situation of funding.

  It has aroused the attention of regulators. Although a little too much involved asset management products and other later successful payment, or defaulted debts have been properly handled, the related risks have to arouse investor vigilance.

  Li Qilin, Managing Director of Lianxun Securities, believes that this round of defaults has two characteristics: one is the intensive and sudden nature of the outbreak.

In May alone, there were no less than five known credit risk events.

Some incidents exceeded expectations with no previous warning signs.

It is difficult to predict just by looking at corporate financial statements.

The second is a wider scope.

In addition to credit debts, non-standard assets represented by trusts have also encountered difficulties in repayment on many occasions. Assets that have just cashed in traditional asset management products have also replaced survivors.

  Tianfeng Securities’s solid income Sun Binbin’s team believes that the special feature of this round of bond defaults is firstly that the defaulting entities are concentrated in private listed companies; another feature is that the defaulting companies also involve some advantages of scale and companies with acceptable operating conditions.Large enterprises have a certain existing and influence in the local economy and job market.

  CITIC Construction Investment’s solid income team pointed out that this year’s bond default incidents, the first is to add default subjects to private enterprises, which continued the characteristics of 2017, which is related to the current situation of private enterprises operating weaker than state-owned enterprises and subject to stronger financing constraints.
Second, the defaulting entity relies too much on bond financing, and the defaulting entity’s level is generally not high.

Third, too many default owners are listed companies, which is significantly different from 2017 and may be related to the severe re-financing of some listed companies’ stocks.

  It is worth mentioning that the general manager of the front-line business department of a listed city commercial bank told the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that as long as the company has a record of default, it will be very difficult to issue debt financing.

The debt must be repaid first, or as soon as the subject’s rating drops, there will be no place in the market.

Unless the local government or creditor thinks the quality of the issuer’s assets is good and is willing to help, it will fall into a vicious circle.

  In fact, potential debt risks and disposal issues after a default event have caught the attention of regulators.  On May 18, Gao Li, a news report from the Securities and Futures Commission, said in response to a reporter’s question that the Securities and Futures Commission noted the recent high redemption risk in the bond market.

The CSRC has reminded relevant departments to focus on pre-examination of risks, forecasting, monitoring, and comprehensive research on breaches of contract that have occurred and deal with them.

The risks that may arise from the securities regulatory supervision are being worked out.

Chint Electric (601877): Steady growth in performance; low-voltage segment expected to accelerate in second half

Chint Electric (601877): Steady growth in performance; low-voltage segment expected to accelerate in second half

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report, which reported a revenue of 144.

2.8 billion, an increase of 21 a year.

22%; net profit attributable to mother 17.

8.4 billion, an increase of 0 in ten years.

08%, it is expected that the transfer of power stations will increase by 19 per year.

35%, EPS is 0.

83 yuan.

The growth momentum of the low-voltage electrical appliance business maintained its leading position in the industry.

According to our industry research, subdivided by trade friction and grid investment growth (-19.

3%), the overall growth rate of the domestic low-voltage industry in 19H1 was 5-7%.

The company’s low-voltage electrical appliance business revenue in 19H1 was about 8.8 billion, a growth rate of about 10%, which was nearly twice the overall growth rate.

In terms of domestic market development: The company has 510 core dealers through product power enhancement, refined management, fair incentives, etc., and 4000 terminal terminals are fully empowered and enhanced. At the same time, the company has locked 6 major industries to focus on expanding the industrial market and large terminal customers.During the reporting period, the industry’s direct sales have achieved remarkable results. Orders from strategic major customers increased by 170% + in half a year, communications orders increased by 50% +, and the control of power bureaus increased construction orders by 30% +.

In terms of overseas market development: The company continues to promote the “global localization” strategy, covering the main target markets with its subsidiary Singapore Sunshine and the Egyptian joint venture factory Chint-EGEMAC as the fulcrum. It has reported and successively won the drainage of Russian oil mining companies and the desalination of Bahrain.Typical projects such as meter boxes in Iraq, SUNWAH PEARL in Vietnam, and energy storage in South Korea.

In the first half of 2019, the growth rates of the company’s distribution, direct sales and overseas are expected to be about 8%, 30% and 15% respectively. From the perspective of industry trends and the company’s gradual change, it is expected that the growth rates of various industry forms will be significantly improved in the second half of the year.
The photovoltaic new energy business maintained steady growth.

19H1’s new energy business achieved revenue of US $ 5.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46.

7%, with net profit growth exceeding 23%.

On the manufacturing side, the company’s component capacity is 3.

2GW, budget is about 1.

8GW, with annual growth and growth; in the second half of the year, the domestic boom in installed capacity + overseas traditional installed capacity peaked during the boom season, and the company’s component business continued to maintain rapid growth.

In terms of EPC business, in July 2019, the National Energy Administration cleared bidding items22.

At 8GW, the company’s EPC won the bid of 651MW, and construction will start in the near future. At the same time, overseas EPCs in the Netherlands, South Korea, and Vietnam have begun in 19H1, and the second half of the year will enter the stage of grid connection to confirm revenue.

In terms of power plant operation, the company is operating a power plant 2.

7GW, where centralized and decentralized are 1 respectively.

15GW and 1.

57GW, the proportion of distributed power stations increased from 42% to 58% in 2018H1, and the quality of operating generators has been significantly optimized.

In terms of household power stations, the company has a clear brand advantage and can share low-voltage distribution channel resources. In 19H1, the number of household installations was increased by 343MW.

Profitability continues to improve, and ROE levels are expected to rise steadily.

The company has a stable business. Since the listing in 2010, the compound revenue and net profit length have reached 20% and 23 respectively.


Strong channels + high turnover lead to major financial indicators such as the company’s turnover days, cash flow, asset-liability ratio, etc., which are higher than those of its peers, and the profit quality is excellent.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s overall gross profit margin was 28.

12%, an increase of 1 from the previous quarter.

23Pcts, of which the gross profit margin of low-voltage appliances increased by 1-2Pcts; cash revenue ratio reached 97%, and operating cash flow was 9.

9 trillion, the asset-liability ratio remained basically stable at 56%.

As the company’s profitability continues to rise, the photovoltaic plant’s asset quality optimization and overall operating efficiency increase, the company’s ROE level in 2018 reached 16.

59%, an increase of 2 a year.

38pcts, starting the upward turning point trend, is expected to return to more than 20% in the future. Investment suggestion: Maintain the company’s Buy-A rating and target price of 30.

00 yuan.

The company’s revenue growth rate is expected to be 12 in 2019-2021.

3%, 14.

0%, 15.

6%; net profit is 42.



9 trillion, a growth rate of 17.

5% / 18.

2% / 16.

0%, corresponding to EPS is 1.



69 yuan.

Maintain the company’s Buy-A rating and 6-month target price of 30.

00 yuan, the target price corresponds to the dynamic estimate of 15x in 2019.

Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risks, rising prices of upstream raw materials, expansion of overseas business beyond expectations, rising photovoltaic module prices, etc.

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): Big Packaging + New Tobacco layout steadily landing optimistic about long-term growth

Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): “Big Packaging + New Tobacco” layout steadily landing optimistic about long-term growth

The company released its 18 annual report: Strategically achieved revenue 33.

7.4 billion (+14.

56%), net profit attributable to mother 7.

2.5 billion (+26.

27%), deducting non-net profit 6.

9.2 billion (+26.


Among them 18Q4 income 9.

9.7 billion (+17.

90%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

800,000 yuan (+29.

37%), deducting non-net profit1.

7.2 billion (+35.


18 years of non-recurring profits and losses totaled 33.12 million yuan, of which entrusted wealth management income was 25.02 million yuan.

The company intends to distribute cash dividends to all shareholders for every 10 shares3.

00 yuan, the dividend ratio reaches 60.

59%, and it is expected that the annual dividend ratio will not be less than 50% in the next three years.

The sales volume of the main business of cigarette labels has grown steadily, and the structure has continued to be optimized.

69% to 11556.

2 trillion, the industry is expected to complete sales of 4,743.

520,000 boxes (10 years increase 0.

98%, converted by 50,000 sticks = 1 case).

Under the slight increase in industry sales and structural upgrades, the company’s main business of cigarette labeling achieved revenue of 25%.

6.6 billion (+8.

05%), gross profit margin of 45.

06% was flat last year, with overall sales reaching 3.53 million boxes (+7.

97%), among which the sales of high-margin fine cigarettes increased by 12%.

49% (expected to exceed 500,000 cases), significantly benefiting from tobacco consumption upgrades.

In addition, the subsidiary Chongqing Hongsheng has 18 years of income4.

7.3 billion (+27.

6%) and net profit of 4168.

480,000 (+61.

52%), orders and performance resumed growth, is expected to contribute investment income of about 27 million yuan.

In terms of raw materials, the subsidiary, Toyota, is meeting the needs of the group’s internal laser paper film and other packaging materials, actively expanding its outreach customers, and achieving a net profit of 6,899.

10,000 yuan (+7.

The rapid growth of color box business continued to explore new customers: the company’s fine color box business was integrated to achieve revenue4.
4.6 billion (+67.

09%), contributing 13.

23% (9 in the same period last year.

07%), gross profit margin increased by 5.

34pct to 23.

52%, due to the increase in orders and the maximization of production capacity.

(1) The premium cigarette case is expected to achieve 3 trillion (+ 90%) revenue, and the customer share continues to increase; (2) The wine package is expected to achieve 47 million yuan (+ 90%) in revenue, and cooperation with Moutai is progressing smoothly. Shenren Packaging has been in the market for 18 yearsIncome 2.

600 million (+ 6%), net profit of 33.71 million (-36%), dragged down by the expansion of the factory is not expected, and is expected to contribute about 10 million investment income, so the company has also achieved well-known liquor brands such as “Jinjiu”, “Red Star Erguotou”, “Jiang Xiaobai” cooperation.

(3) 3C Packaging is expected to realize revenue of 67 million yuan, and the company has successively obtained the qualification of qualified suppliers of new tobacco products such as British American Tobacco, Renault Tobacco, Philip Morris International, Yue Ke and other well-known brands.

Xintuo’s benchmark liquor company Wuliangye, the wine bag is expected to enter the heavy volume period: On April 11, 19th, the company announced that it and Wuliangye accompanied the exquisite printing to jointly fund a joint venture company to start a tobacco and wine packaging business cooperation.After the supply chain system, another major breakthrough in the field of wine packaging has laid a foundation for the development of other liquor brands.

In 2018, Chinese liquor enterprises above the designated size achieved an output of 871.

20,000 kiloliters (+3.

1%), and the overall growth is stable; Wuliangye’s commercial wine sales reached 19 in 18 years.

16 positive (+6.

4%), based on a rough estimate of 10 yuan per wine box, Wuliangye wine box orders can reach 3 to 4 billion.

In the future, Jinjia is expected to take orders for some Wuliangye wine bags, which will drive the growth of the company’s boutique wine box business.

Deepening the layout of new tobacco business is expected to benefit first: According to Euromonitor International’s estimates, the number of consumers of new tobacco products in 18 years will exceed 40 million, and it is expected to grow to 64 million by 2022; the value of new tobacco products in 18 years will be USD 24.7 billion (+45.

8%), of which electronic cigarettes are about 145.

US $ 200 million (+ 27%), iQOS represented approximately US $ 10.2 billion of heated non-combustible tobacco products, which nearly doubled.

Emerging companies stepped up their efforts to develop new tobacco business, established a joint venture with Xiaomi Technology, a subsidiary of Xiaomi, and its new tobacco products are expected to be available in the first half of 19; and Jiayu, a subsidiary of Yunnan Tobacco, a subsidiary of China Tobacco, was establishedScience and technology carried out research, production and marketing activities of new tobacco smoking sets.

We believe that domestic new-type tobacco products are ready to take off, and the company’s early layout has benefited from the deep promotion.

  Expenses were well controlled and investment income increased: internal company gross profit margin43.

66%, a slight decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

45pct, which is due to the increase in the proportion of color box business in terms of gross profit margin.

The total cost rate during the period decreased by one.

21 points to 15.

97%, of which the selling expense ratio is also reduced by zero.

1 point to 3.

47%, the management + R & D expense rate is reduced by 0.

6pct to 12.

67%, due to the decrease in interest expenses, the financial expense ratio also decreased by zero.

51pct to -0.


Initial investment net income was 78.52 million (+125.

25%), due to the increase in wealth management income and investment income from associates.

Taken together, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent increased by 2 pct to 21.


At the end of the period, the company’s bills receivables and accounts receivable 8.

7.9 billion (+0 from the beginning of the period).
900 million), accounts receivable turnover days reduced 北京桑拿洗浴保健 several times.
35 days to 76.

23 days.

Preliminary net operating cash flow of the company 8.

5.3 billion (+ 4%).

The “big package + new tobacco” layout has landed smoothly and is optimistic about long-term growth: The company’s main business of tobacco labeling is positioned at the high end, and it is expected to expand steadily under the trend of structural upgrading of the tobacco industry. At the same time, it will vigorously develop the gift box business, and cooperate with Maotai, Wuliangye and other brand wine companies.The cooperation has gradually entered into a good situation, and the volume of wine package business can be expected; development, the company actively cultivates a new tobacco sunrise industry, and is committed to benefiting from the policy.

The company actively implemented share repurchase, and the one-year repurchase program was completed on March 5, 2019, and gradually repurchased 2996.

390,000 shares, accounting for 2% of the company’s current total share capital, with a turnover of 2.

300 million, firm development confidence.

Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect to achieve revenue of 38 in 19-21, respectively.



8.3 billion, an increase of 14.

7% / 15.

1% / 14.

1%; net profit attributable to mother 9.



1.7 billion, an increase of 25.

0% / 20.



The current priority corresponding to PE is 23.


25X / 15.

98X, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: New business development fails to meet expectations, tobacco industry expectations exceed expectations

美国政府迎来史上最长停摆 公务员失去收入面临生存困境

美国政府迎来史上最长停摆 公务员失去收入面临生存困境
­  这是2018年12月22日在美国华盛顿一处政府大楼外拍摄的关门告示。­  美国东部时间12日零时,从去年12月下旬开始的美国联邦政府部分机构停摆进入第22天,这意味美国联邦政府迎来史上最长停摆。­  由于美国白宫和国会民主党人在修建边境隔离墙等问题上分歧严重,各方未能就拨款法案达成一致,约四分之一的美国联邦政府机构从去年12月22日凌晨开始陷入停摆,约80万联邦政府雇员被迫无薪工作或被政府强制休假。­  这是1月11日在美国首都华盛顿拍摄的华盛顿纪念碑。新华社记者 刘杰 摄­  因停摆持续,不少政府雇员及其家庭因为失去收入正面临财务乃至生存困境。­  近日,受影响的政府雇员在华盛顿哥伦北京桑拿洗浴保健比亚特区、纽约市等地举行抗议,美国多个工会组织还就停摆对联邦雇员的影响对联邦政府提起诉讼。此外,停摆期间,一些联邦政府服务大打折扣,华盛顿当地服务行业也遭受重创。­  美国史上最长政府停摆让工薪阶层不知所措­  自停摆以来,白宫和民主党人进行了多个回合磋商,但未能取得实质性突破,还导致局面更加僵持。­  据美国媒体统计,自1976年以来,美国联邦政府遇到过21次停摆,原先最长纪录是克林顿执政时期创下的21天,当时的停摆从1995年底持续到1996年初。­  这是1月12日在美国纽约拍摄的国家联邦大厅纪念馆外的华盛顿塑像,该建筑因政府部分停摆而关闭。新华社记者 王迎 摄­  由于本届国会参议院将于下周复会,这意味着当前的停摆将继续刷新历史最长纪录。据白宫此前估计,联邦政府现在每停摆一周,美国经济就损失约12亿美元。­  1月4日,在美国华盛顿白宫,美国总统特朗普在媒体发布会上讲话。新华社发(沈霆摄)­  就美国政府关门,美国总统唐纳德特朗普11日决定,现在不会宣布国家进入紧急状态。 原标题:美国政府迎来史上最长“停摆”!

Depth-Company-Global Asahi Electronics (601231): Management costs drag down performance Modular demand injects growth momentum

Depth * Company * Huanxu Electronics (601231): Management costs drag down performance Modular demand injects growth momentum

Recently, the company released the 2019 semi-annual performance report: report summary, and realized total operating income of 146.

4.0 billion, an annual increase of 14.

05%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

89 ‰, falling by 0 every year.


Key points of support levels Revenue has steadily increased, and expenses in the second quarter have dragged down performance.

In the first half of 2019, the company’s revenue increased by 14 in ten years.

05%, mainly due to: (1) industrial products added important customers in 2018, the customer orders continued to increase in the first half of this year; (2) orders for wearable products increased significantly in the first quarter.

In the first half of the year, non-net profit after deduction decreased by 35 each year.

03%, the decline was attenuated, and the preliminary results were as follows: (1) The company’s comprehensive gross profit rate fell by 0.

74 units; (2) R & D expenses, management expenses, sales expenses, financial expenses and other period expenses increase by 27 each year.


Among them, the increase in management expenses was mainly due to the increase in related personnel costs caused by the expansion of the scale of operations and the increase in overseas bases in 2019, the increase in depreciation costs due to the application of new lease arrangements, and the increase in system software and project-related labor costs.To.

As modularization needs rise, SIP welcomes opportunities.

The demand for modularization of consumer electronics products such as 5G communications and mobile phones will increase. In addition, the demand for SiP 上海夜网论坛 for wearable products such as viewing will also increase.

The company is a leading company in the field of systems and SiP, and will benefit from the modularization trend of consumer electronics.

The introduction of new automotive electronics customers continues and is expected to welcome growth.

The company has an early layout in the field of automotive electronics, and has entered the series Tier 1 supply system.

In 2018, affected by the decline of the auto market and the operation of the Mexican plant, changes in automotive electronics products changed the continuous improvement of the production capacity and inventory management of the Mexican plant. In 2019, it will turn to profitability.

Looking ahead, the market development of ADAS and new energy vehicle power systems is expected to drive the company’s automotive electronics business to grow significantly.

Estimated expected company 2019?
The EPS in 2021 is 0.

70, 0.

85, 1.

05 yuan, the current expected corresponding PE is 29X, 21X, 24X.

Considering that the company’s leaders are leading SIP technology companies, they will benefit from the modularization trend of consumer electronics products and maintain their holdings.

The main risks facing rating SIP technology application promotion is less than expected; major customer order changes.

Oupai Home (603833): Multi-channel + Multi-category consolidation leading faucet, large-scale home furnishing is expected to contribute a considerable increase

Oupai Home (603833): Multi-channel + Multi-category consolidation leading faucet, large-scale home furnishing is expected to contribute a considerable increase

[Event]Europa released its 2018 annual report and achieved 115 revenue.

09 million yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.

53%, net profit attributable to mother 15.

7.2 billion, an increase of 20 in ten years.

90%, an increase of 25 in the next ten years.


Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 31 in advance.

6% / 21.

2% / 10.

7% / 18.

0%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 32 each year.

5% / 32.

9% / 22.

6% / 4.

The company’s 2018 performance is in line with expectations. It is expected that revenue will increase by 15% annually in 2019, total operating costs will increase by 15%, and net profit will increase by 20%.

  [Comment]1) The cabinet keeps stable, the wardrobe develops rapidly, and the wooden door bathroom grows rapidly.

On the income side, ① custom cabinets: income grows by 7 per year.

7% to 57.

700 million US dollars, although the industry penetration rate is high, the growth rate is the same as the land, and squeezed by hardcover, but Europe sent to adopt omni-channel marketing, a net increase of 126 stores to 2,276, force installation + e-commerce + bulkChannels: Improve the efficiency of traditional channels, improve products and services, empower dealers, and grow revenue steadily.

② Customized wardrobe: The income increases by 25 every year.

9% to 41.

500 million US dollars, although the industry competition is intensifying and hardcover assembly and diversion, the penetration rate and market share still have room for growth. The company has a net increase of 271 stores to 2,113, optimizing 杭州桑拿 whole house packages, enriching promotional methods, and draining hardcover projects., Seize the share and increase the value of customer orders, and rapid growth in revenue.

③European wooden door: revenue growth rate of 49.

5%, a net increase of 116 to 825 stores, upgrade products and storefronts, improve e-commerce / assembly / engineering channels, and drive sales of supporting products.

④ European-style bathroom: revenue growth rate of 47.

At 7%, investment promotion accelerated, with a net increase of 191 to 559 stores, strengthening research and development, and rapid growth in shower rooms and smart toilets.

Therefore, the corresponding leading drainage effect and channel realizing ability, the new category of Europa has grown rapidly.

⑤ Aubrey: Revenue growth rate is 32.

0%, the net increase of 96 stores to 935, transform terminal operations, improve package form, build Tmall platform, confirm the e-commerce O2O path.

  2) The effects of the large home furnishings are beginning to appear, and the conversion channels are fully drained.

① The large-scale home furnishings landed quickly. Oupai took the lead in adopting a model of direct cooperation with local decoration leaders and empowering brands, products and services to gradually flow into the entrance and quickly grab share. Currently, 22 cities have been installed in the whole furnishings.Yibin and Changsha have matured, and the overall order of cabinet assembly exceeded 3.

500 million.

② In the context of the traffic entrance, Europa developed its channels in an all-round way. In addition to the whole installation, it gradually strengthened its cooperation with large real estate developers, responding to the trend of accelerating the advancement of refined decoration, and its bulk income increased by 47.

0% to 14.

1.8 billion yuan, accounting for 12.

3%; Improve the perfect online layout, e-commerce drainage accounted for 20% of cabinet revenue in 18 years, and e-commerce drainage accounted for 23 of wooden door revenue.


In addition, new stores such as Gome stores, community stores, and shopping malls will be added to realize all-round drainage.  3) Strengthened cost control and significantly improved gross profit margin.

The overall gross profit margin of Europai increased by 3.

86pct to 38.

38%, in terms of products, the gross profit margin of cabinets / wardrobes / bathrooms increased by 3.



2pct to 39.

8% / 42.

0% / 26.

5%, the wooden door drops 2.

3pct to 13.

6%; by distribution channel, gross profit margin of distribution / bulk increased by 3.


5 points to 35.

7% / 49.

5%; in terms of brands, the European gross margin increased by 4.

6pct to 39.

9%, Opalin fell by 3.

8 points to 26.


Improved, the company strengthened cost control, increased production efficiency, labor and manufacturing costs decreased; replaced, the company’s marketing direction was upgraded from single category to full space, using the whole house package, kitchen clothes and clothing-wood integration sales model, and increased home accessoriesSales, thereby increasing customer prices and increasing profits.

  4) The expense ratio increased slightly during the period.

Selling expense ratio rose by 0.

5 points to 10.

2%, mainly due to competitive pressure, the company used promotions to allow profits to grab share, advertising costs increased; management expense rate rose 0.

4 points to 6.

7%, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, as well as the increase in depreciation and office expenses at the production base; the R & D expense ratio increased by 2.

7 points to 5.

5%, mainly due to the company’s efforts in information production to improve profitability and large-scale home furnishing base.

Finance costs expense -0.

3% (0 in the same period last year).

03%), mainly due to the increase in interest income and exchange losses.

The period expense ratio increased and the non-operating income decreased (the government subsidy decreased by 69.

7% to 0.

25 ppm), the company’s net profit margin rose by only 0.

3 points to 13.


  5) Operating capacity has been slightly reduced.

Due to the continuous increase in the proportion of major businesses with the problem of account occupation, the company’s operating net cash flow increased for ten years.

5%, the growth rate has improved; the receivables turnover rate from 69.8 expected 53.

9, asset turnover rate from 1.

28 expected 1.

11, plus the equity multiplier decreases, so the ROE is 28.

5% interest rate 22.


  6) Looking ahead, the 19-year performance is expected to grow steadily.

① In the short term, the downturn in real estate demand in the early stage

8%) is expected to improve margins, the current second-hand housing and first-tier and second-tier new house transactions are picking up, and the improvement of the financing environment is driving the completion upward.

  Although custom homes are subject to the pressure of penetration increase and hardcover diversion, Oupai tried multiple formats (such as integrated marketing channels), developed multiple categories (such as bathroom wooden doors), and implemented large homes based on traditional big homes.It is expected to bring considerable performance volume.

The company expects revenue growth of 15% in 19 years to maintain steady growth.

② In the long run, the front-end and traditional channels are still sinking space. Bulk and e-commerce will continue to draw in (Opeli will deepen the e-commerce path), and through the release of brand effects, dealer optimization and terminal empowerment, channel efficiency will be further improved.Promotion.
Scale, the Chengdu base expands its production capacity base after it is put into production, at the same time, the company accelerates the advancement of informatization, improves profitability and operating efficiency, reduces error rates to improve service quality, and consolidates scale non-standard production capacity.

  Investment suggestion: We continue to be optimistic about the company’s endogenous growth capabilities and long-term competitive advantages, and judge that the assembly channel will mature in 19 years, and it is expected to contribute to a stable and substantial performance increase.

We expect EPS to be 4 in 2019-2021.



04 yuan, the corresponding PE is 26.



9X, maintaining “strongly recommended” rating.

  Risk warning: Real estate sales are sluggish, competition in the industry is intensifying, and big homes are less than expected.

Zhongbai Group (000759): Deducting non-net profit in 2018

Zhongbai Group (000759): Deducting non-net profit in 2018

Results review The 2018 results are in line with expectations. The 2018 results announced by Zhongbai Group: Operating income 152.

08,000 yuan, previously unchanged; net profit attributable to the parent company4.

310,000 yuan, an increase of 537 in ten years.

06%, corresponding to a profit of 0.

63 yuan, in line with expectations.

After deducting non-profit, the net profit was 29.46 million yuan, which turned into a loss for many years.

By quarter, 18Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue growth rates were +1 respectively.

2% / + 2.

1% / + 3.

6% /-6.

3%, net profit growth was -83% / + 1433% / + 238% / + 40%, Q4 adjustment is related to the replacement of store closures and overall consumption growth.

  Development trend 1, revenue ends flat for two years.

In terms of business types, 1) Supermarket business: 10 years of revenue +0.

48%, mainly driven by the growth of new stores and comparable stores. In terms of store efficiency, the revenue of comparable stores in Hubei / Zhongbai Storage Chongqing / Zhongbai Supermarket was +2 respectively.

69% /-9.

48% / + 0.


The main companies in the report promoted the upgrading of fresh products, developed new formats such as standard supermarkets and convenience stores, and also improved their online operation capabilities; 2) Department store business: gradually revenue for ten years.

92% comparable store same store-6.

61% of the report, the high-end department store segment focused on reducing losses in single stores, and promoted 深圳桑拿网 the transformation of internal management mechanisms to increase store vitality.

As for the layout of outlets, the total number of outlets at the end of the year was 1,255, a net increase of 125 from the end of 2017, which resulted in 187/62 outlets being added / closed.

In 2019, the company plans to add 215 outlets, of which 15/50/30/120 hypermarkets / Zhongbai Supermarket stores / Zhongbai Haobang stores / convenience stores, respectively.

  2. Profitability has improved.

Every time the gross profit margin increases by 0.

7ppt to 22.

5%, in which the gross profit margin of the supermarket / department store format is +0 each.

37 / + 1.

At 82ppt, the profitability of comparable stores in various industries has improved. We expect to benefit mainly from alternatives 南京夜网论坛 such as supply chain optimization and industry optimization.

The sales expense rate is +0 per year.

3ppt to 18.

1%, short-term management expense ratio -0.

2ppt to 3.

1%, the financial expense ratio is zero in ten years.

2ppt to 0.


Net profit margin increased significantly.

4ppt to 2.

8%, the main factor company Zhongbai Warehousing Road Lions Road storehouse demolition compensation increased the current period net profit4.2.7 billion, net profit after deduction was 29.46 million yuan, a net decrease of 4739 compared to the same period last year.

70,000 yuan realized a loss.

  3. Pay attention to store adjustment benefits and new retail progress.

In 2019, the company will continue to promote store upgrades, optimize the supply chain and increase store operation efficiency.

At the same time, the company actively strengthened its new retail layout.

By the end of 2018, 495 stores had launched multi-point home services, and gradually realized breakthroughs in online transactions.

200 million US dollars (mainly for third-party platforms such as JD.com and Daojia); the cumulative number of registered WeChat mini-programs in the warehouse supermarket exceeded 1.33 million and the total transaction amount was 1.

2.3 billion.

Follow-up attention to store adjustments and new retail progress.

  Earnings forecast remains unchanged from 2018 / 19e earnings forecast of 0.


23 yuan unchanged.

  Estimates and recommendations currently correspond to 19 times 35 times P / E.

Maintain neutrality, and raise target price by 10% to 7 based on fundamental improvement.

15 yuan, corresponding to 19 times 37 times price-earnings ratio, there is room for growth of 8%.

  Risk consumption continued to be sluggish; industry competition intensified.