Zhongzhi shares (600038) 2019Q3 review: production and delivery accelerated inventory accounted for a new high in the past five years

Zhongzhi shares (600038) 2019Q3 review: production and delivery accelerated inventory accounted for a new high in the past five years

Core point of view The outstanding performance of the third quarter of 2019 and the continuous acceleration of production and delivery: The company released the third quarter of 2019 and achieved revenue of 105.

2.9 billion, an annual increase of 28.

63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.

US $ 0.5 billion, an annual increase of 32.

12%; net profit attributable to mother after deduction is 3.

8.3 billion, an annual increase of 28.

56%.

In the income statement, the company’s R & D expenses are 1.

2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 33 over the same period last year.

12%, the growth rate of R & D investment is still at a relatively high level.

In the balance sheet, the contract liabilities at the beginning of the year and the current period are 58 respectively.

00 billion and 37.

1.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 56.

12%, a decrease of 21 in the same period last year.

12%, indicating that the company’s delivery this year has increased compared with last year.

Purchasing cash flow has increased sharply each year, and the proportion of inventory in total assets has reached a new high in the past five years: in the cash flow statement, the first three quarters of purchasing goods and accepting labor services paid cash growth of 85.

32%, 60.

22% vs. 33.

09%, the corresponding figure for the same period last year was -51.

93%, -17.

09% vs -3.

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62%, cash paid for purchases increased significantly this year.

At the same time, the inventory surplus at the end of the third quarter was 156.

74ppm, 64% of assets.

14% is the highest value in the past 5 years. Military production is highly planned. The high proportion of inventories indicates that the company’s current production plan is full and it needs a large amount of inventory to ensure production.

  The average values of the inventory and cash flow indicators indicate that the company is currently in a high level of production and delivery. It is expected that the company will benefit from mass production in the future and will maintain long-term stable growth.

The debut of the Zhi 20 National Day military parade will provide guarantee for the company’s stable growth in the future: During the National Day 北京夜网 military parade in 2019, the company’s straight 20 tactical general-purpose helicopter made its public debut.

At the subsequent Fifth China Tianjin International Helicopter Expo, for the first time, four new straight-line tactical general-purpose helicopters of the type-20 were also included. This indicates that the straight-line general-purpose helicopter has begun mass production to accelerate the installation of troops.

The company’s beautiful performance this year is inseparable from the straight 20 package. As a general-purpose 10-ton helicopter, the straight 20 is the world’s most equipped model.

Subsequent Zhi-20 families will also continue to develop, such as strengthening the armed air assault type and shipborne type, so there may be demand for the production of nearly a thousand Zhi-20, the company’s future performance is expected to maintain steady growth throughout the year.

  Investment advice: We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

10 yuan, 1.

38 yuan and 1.

72 yuan, corresponding to PE is 39 times, 31 times and 25 times, respectively, given the “recommended” level.

Risk reminder: straight 20 production progress is less than expected, troop procurement is less than expected