The view of fitness on the bull market after the return of the box shock is a high probability event
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”Red Weekly” special author Xiamen Tao Dan experienced repeated upswings since last Tuesday, A shares have gradually come out of the shadow of the 南京夜网论坛 first day of the post-holiday crash, and the repair is in good condition, showing the strong price of A shares.
However, will the SSE Index rise above the 3000-point integer mark and enter a new round of bull market?
The author believes that it needs to be treated with caution.
After the early rapid correction of the downward test support, the original prototype of the head and shoulders breakthrough has been destroyed. The return of the market to the box shock is a high probability event, and investors can be prepared.
What is cabinet shock?
Pressure on the top and support on the bottom are the best manifestations of this trend.
From the perspective of fundamental factors, China’s economy is optimistic in the long-term during the transformation and upgrading. Abundant liquidity has also provided good support for the 杭州桑拿网 currently expected A-shares. The general trend of continued foreign holdings has not changed. The three major results are AThere is a key underpinning in the stock.
Despite the influence of epidemic factors, the rapid adjustment of the two trading days before and after the Spring Festival has effectively released short-term kinetic energy and proved the bottom support of the box near the 2700 point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. This has become the consensus of most investors.
However, the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy is by no means negligible. In particular, the weakening of demand or insufficient start-up in some industries, and the impact of the quarterly report or even the intermediate report is foreseeable.
Although it is still in the annual report release period, the quality of the first quarter report cannot be completely corrected for the time being, and the market is well-known for rebounding. However, after the announcement of the second quarter and the release of the first quarter report, the thunder phenomenon of some companies may disappear.After the company’s recent strong rebound, it will be under pressure from a quarterly report.
Therefore, before the first quarterly report is released in April, if the stock index rises to a certain extent, the second quarter will face some adjustment pressure on the box.
The author believes that a high probability of 2700-3100 points will become the operating interval of this slowly repaired new cabinet.
From a technical point of view, the “press up and down support” is also traceable.
Beginning in 2015, the Shanghai Stock Index was hit by an obvious downward trend line. In 2019, it made a strong attack and broke through in April of that year. The high point before the Spring Festival this year also fell back.
From 2008 to 2014, the Shanghai Stock Index was also continuously suppressed by an obvious downward trend line, and it took 6 years to finally break through.
If we refer to the previous experience, it will take 6 years for the Shanghai Stock Index to finally break through and stabilize this trend line. Then 2021 will be the best time for effective standing.
As a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will keep the box from spreading in 2020, which is also time to exchange space and wait for the support of the long-term upward trend line since 2005, thus forming a relatively perfect breakthrough (see photo).
Therefore, this box is also the “last shock” on the eve of the Shanghai Stock Index bull market’s official breakthrough. Waiting patiently is the best option for most investors, even the only option.
Although the stock index box has limited space for sorting, the box also means that the broader market performance is relatively stable, which has laid the foundation for the wonderful structural bull market of individual stocks. The author focuses on the opportunities of low-tech stocks and potential stocks.
Recently, the technology theme funds continue to sell well, which is expected to form a positive cycle effect. For some technology stocks that are still at a low level and have unique competition or fair incentives, they have the potential to rediscover value.
The species that the author focuses on are: COSCO Haike, Dongfang Guoxin, Yinxin Technology, Neusoft Cardiovascular, Gold Card Smart, etc.
In addition, the concept stocks of the recent stock market have become active again, showing that funds are digging the value of related companies. Among them, Shenneng shares were listed by Yangtze Power, which represents the recognition of value stocks by industrial capital. The power stocks with abundant cash flow have a mapping effect.The key species to observe are Qianyuan Power and Star Power.
The Liaoning Chengda was listed as having both ownership and GF Securities, Chengda Biological and other high-quality hidden assets to support the related, and the distribution of the distribution, the new shareholders holding a card has the effect of four or two pounds.
Therefore, some stocks are scattered, and individual stocks with high-quality listed companies or NEEQ shares may also be listed in the future. The types of focus that the author has observed are Haixin and Yatai Group.
For investors who are not good at seizing the fluctuation opportunities of individual stocks for a long period of time, it is also a good choice to use static braking and continue to invest in low-estimation index ETF funds. Low-level mechanical buying may be able to reap unexpected surprises.