Shandong Publishing (601019) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth and Dividend Proportion

Shandong Publishing (601019) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth and Dividend Proportion

Event: Shandong Publishing released the 2018 annual report on the evening of April 13杭州桑拿, and the company actually achieved revenue of 93.

51 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

05%; gradually realize net profit attributable to mother 14.

85 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

8%, of which Q4 decreased by 9 in a single season.

18%.

The company plans to distribute 2 for every 10 shares.

9 yuan.

  The expense ratio is generally stable, and the profit margin is rising steadily.

The company’s overall gross profit margin in 2018 was 35.

87%, net interest rate 15.

88%, a slight improvement over 2017.

The three-fee rate and the 2017 ranking are also basically stable.

  The book business grew steadily, and the publishing business suffered a reduction in gross profit margin due to paper.

In terms of products, the revenue growth of teaching aids and general books was 12 respectively.

85% and above 9.

30%, in terms of business, publishing and distribution increased by 12 respectively.

01% vs. 12.

10%.

The gross profit margin of the publishing business was relatively stable, and the gross profit margin of the publishing business decreased by 20172.

36pct, we think it is mainly due to rising paper costs.

The company’s paper material fee in 20186.

53 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.

58%.

  As a pillar business, teaching materials and teaching aids continued to increase revenue and gross profit.

In 2018, the company’s teaching aid revenue accounted for 73%.

1%, while gross profit accounted for 74.

71%.

The contribution of teaching materials to the overall business shows an increasing trend.

  The proportion of dividends continues to increase.

The company plans to pay dividends of 6 in 2018.

50,000 yuan, accounting for 40% of net profit attributable to mothers.

74%, with a dividend payout ratio of 33 in 2017.

63%, an increase of 7.

11 points.

  The cash position is good, and there is no risk of impairment of goodwill, debt repayment, pledge and other risks.

The company has plenty of cash in hand, 50 in 2018.

3.3 billion.There is currently no goodwill, interest-bearing debt and pledges, so there are no related risks.

  The improvement of textbook teaching and auxiliary business performance depends on long-term population growth, short-to-medium term growth through penetration rate increase, profit proportion increase, and cost reduction.

  Shandong is the top three most populous province in the country. The number of births has increased. Since 2014, the number of new students has increased significantly. From 2016 to 2017, the number of new students has led the country for two consecutive years.

  Paper prices are somehow good for publishing.

The price of paper began to increase sharply at the end of 2016, and deviated significantly after peaking in April 2018. Attempts to gradually increase the company’s profits in the future, but due to the reduction in the proportion of paper costs to publishing revenue and the decline in the proportion of publishing business in the company’s business, paperPrice impact is limited.

We estimate that for every 10% decrease in the cost of paper prices, the performance elasticity brought by Shandong Publishing is close to 4%.

  Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that Shandong Publishing will achieve 101 in revenue in 2019-2021.

2.8 billion, 108.

20 ppm, 115.

25 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

31%, 6.

83%, 6.

52%; net profit attributable to mothers was 16 respectively.

3.3 billion, 17.

6.3 billion, 18.

95 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

96%, 7.

95%, 7.

49%; EPS for 2019-2021 are 0.

78 yuan, 0.

84 yuan, 0.

91 yuan.

  Risk prompts: rising paper prices; the downturn in the publishing industry; transition and upgrading are not up to expectations; dividends are up to expectations; market risks are expected to be downside risks.