Lixun Precision (002475): The outlook for the first half of the year exceeds the expectations, and consumer electronics and communications are in full swing

Lixun Precision (002475): The outlook for the first half of the year exceeds the expectations, and consumer electronics and communications are in full swing
Event: The company announced in the first quarter of 2019 that it realized operating income of 90 billion yuan in the first quarter, net profit attributable to 武汉夜生活网 its mother6.1.6 billion, with an annual growth rate of 85%, and the performance growth range for the first half of the year is expected to be 70-90%. Comments: 1. The first quarter results were on the high side, and the trend exceeded the market expectations. The company announced that the first quarter revenue was 90 billion yuan, an increase of 67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent6.1.6 billion, an annual increase of 85%, is in the 70-90% range of the previous notice, and the corresponding EPS is 0.15 yuan and deduct 5 for non-net profit.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 108%, again against the trend to exceed market expectations!The company explained the contradiction in advance. Although the overall economic environment of the industry in which it is located is challenging, the company is based on the comprehensive planning of consumer electronics products and customers in the early stage, the years of advanced communications, industrial and automotive electronics products and customers, and its own strong project implementation capabilitiesAdvance notice, the company’s performance will continue to achieve rapid growth.In the preliminary financial indicators, Q1 gross margin was 18.89% is slightly lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the volume of Airpods with a slightly lower gross profit margin. We judge that the new and old versions of Q1 headsets have been replaced by about 5 million units, and the upgraded version of Airpods has a lower Q1 replacement and climbing costsThe gross profit margin of the company, but the company’s motors, acoustics and other components profitability is better than the same period last year, the company’s overall net profit rate of 7%, more than the same period last year; Q1 sales and management expense ratio fell by 1% to 2.87%, which shows that the scale effect has further improved, and R & D investment6.8.8 billion, an annual increase of 68.9%, R & D accounted for 7.6% continued to improve.It is worth noting that of the non-recurring gains and losses of 97.82 million, 77.29 million were forward foreign exchange gains hedged by the company, which hedged some of the RMB’s appreciation of exchange losses, which also illustrates the company’s neutral and stable financial standards.In the end, the company’s operating cash flow was 30% lower than last year, a decrease of 5.6 billion, mainly due to the preparation of new products such as airpods, it also means that the second quarter of business flexibility is considerable2, the outlook for the second quarter again exceeded expectations, consumer electronics and communications business in full swing. The company expects that the growth rate of the first half of the year will be 70-90%, corresponding to 14.0-15.The net profit of 700 million yuan is consistent with the outlook range of Q1. The median value of the interval corresponds to a net profit of 8 in Q2.700 million, an annual increase of 76.5% month-on-month growth of 41.2%, once again more than expected!Considering that in 18Q2, there was more than one billion US dollars of exchange gains but not in the same period of this year, and 19Q2 also has amortization of tens of millions of incentive costs, which means that the actual growth rate of Q2 is higher.We believe that the upgraded version of AirPods is concentrated in Q2 (the ASP of ordinary and wireless charging boxes is expanded and the profitability is improved after changing the line and climbing). IPhone sales are back to normal levels after Q1 is reduced in price and destocked (parts profitability)(Optimization) and Huawei ‘s mobile phone exceeded expectations, Q2 ‘s continued heavy traffic in the communications business, and the company ‘s overall automation and internal management efficiency improved, which pushed Q2 ‘s performance to continue to exceed expectations ‘s high growth. 3. The annual high growth in 19 years is determined, and the logic of the increase in the next three years is clear. Looking forward to 19 years, we believe that Airpods will usher in a great year of innovation in the 19th year, and a major revision is expected in the second half of the year. ASP and penetration rate are expected to further increase, while Luxion fully participates in new product research and development support, and capacity planning is expected to continue in the 19th year.Embracing real growth, watch parts and complete machine innovation and business breakthroughs also surpassed expectations.In addition, in terms of mobile phones, even considering the pessimistic expectations of the decline in Apple’s sales volume, as new categories are gradually increasing in volume, and motors, acoustics, etc. will continue to grow, the growth trend of the mobile phone business is still clear.In addition, the company’s outstanding technology and customer card slot merger 5G communication business in 19 years is expected to usher in further volume growth of nearly 100% is worth looking forward to. In addition, the car layout is also continuing to advance, the overall 19-year incremental logic is clear, and the trend continues to be highGrowth can be expected; and the 5G innovation year 2020-21 and the company’s new category breakthroughs are more worth looking forward to.If we have been renewed, Luxun’s comprehensive breakthroughs in the consumer electronics, communications and automotive businesses will make three years of high growth clearly visible.The company continued to launch two phases of equity incentives in 18-19 years. It also plays a role in attracting mid- to high-end management and technical talents, maintaining team stability and motivating employees. 4. Maintain strong recommendation and raise target price to 33 yuan. We are optimistic about Lixun from the bottom up, through the share of feeds, expanding categories, extending new areas, improving management and financial efficiency, and achieving high growth against the trend, it is a rare high-quality company with clear long, medium and short logics;Consider the unexpected factors of wearable wireless earphones, watches, and communications business, and the amortization costs of the two-year distribution incentives for 18-19 (19/20/21 total 2).82/2.37/1.5.7 billion), we forecast net profit attributable to mothers for 19/20/21 to be 38.5/54.5/75.0 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.94/1.32/1.82 yuan, corresponding to 28/20/14 times the current 杭州桑拿网 continuous PE. Under the three-year 40 +% compound growth trend, the current continued underestimation is still relatively low. We maintain the “strongly recommended-A” rating and raise the target price to 33 yuan, which is equivalent.25 times PE in 20 years, long-term bullish on the company to catch up with the market value of international giants such as Amphenol / Tyco. Risk factors.Sales of major customers were lower than expected, new product introduction exceeded expectations, and price competition intensified.