Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report review: a sharp increase in performance continues high boom

Xiantan shares (002746) 2018 annual report and 2019 first quarterly report review: a sharp increase in performance continues high boom

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report with an operating income of 25.

7.8 billion, an increase of 19 in ten years.

12%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

2 billion, an increase of 294 previously.

At the same time, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5 yuan for every 10 shares and increase 5 shares.

Since 2018, the prosperity of the poultry chain has been rising, and the price has continued to reach new highs to promote the company’s performance growth.

And the single quarter net profit for the first four quarters was 0.

3.1 billion, 0.

5.8 billion, 1.

3.1 billion and 1.

8.2 billion, a significant improvement quarter by quarter.

The high prosperity of the bird chain continued in the first quarter of 2019, and the company’s performance again exceeded expectations.

Quarterly report for January 2019, the company realized operating income of 7.

35 trillion, an increase of 62 in ten years.

44%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

56 billion, an increase of 407 a year.

73%.

Comments: The cycle goes up, the amount of profit and the same increase. In 2018, the company released a total of white chickens.

1.7 billion birds, a slight increase of 0 previously.

77%.

The company’s broilers are mainly used to sell frozen chicken products after slaughter, and only a small part is exported directly.

18 years company processed food 28.

34 for the first time, growing by 6 per year.

35%, if calculated based on this, the company’s 18-year chicken sales price is 8564 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.

3%.

At the same time, due to the commissioning of Xian Food, Hong Food and other subsidiaries, the company’s self-use rate from 17 to 95.

13% increased to 98%.

Too many introductions in the short term and do not have to worry too much, the high prosperity of the poultry chain is expected to continue. The recent high monthly introduction data and the expected resumption of French customs have caused market changes. We believe that the poultry chain will maintain a high prosperity in 19-20 years:Introduced in 2018 is still gradually balanced, and supply is still scarce.

At the time of the resumption in France, the persistence of high introduction needs to be observed; 2) African swine fever leads to pork resupply, and the increase in pig prices will drive up the prices of other protein products.

3) In the short term, seedling prices are still high, supporting the price of chickens.

The second quarter is the off-season of demand, and the price of poultry chains will improve. From the end of the second quarter to the third quarter, the price of poultry chains will reopen a new round of rapid advancement.

Earnings forecast, investment rating: The price of poultry chain has risen faster than expected. In view of the first quarter performance forecast, we have raised the company’s EPS forecast for 19-20 to 2.

53 yuan, 2.

70 yuan, while supplementing the 21-year EPS forecast is 2.

88 yuan.

The current company’s 19-year estimate is only 10 times, which has certain evaluation advantages.

We continue to be bullish on the company and maintain a 南京桑拿论坛 “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Product price rise is less than expected risk.