Zhongzhi shares (600038) 2019Q3 review: production and delivery accelerated inventory accounted for a new high in the past five years

Zhongzhi shares (600038) 2019Q3 review: production and delivery accelerated inventory accounted for a new high in the past five years

Core point of view The outstanding performance of the third quarter of 2019 and the continuous acceleration of production and delivery: The company released the third quarter of 2019 and achieved revenue of 105.

2.9 billion, an annual increase of 28.

63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.

US $ 0.5 billion, an annual increase of 32.

12%; net profit attributable to mother after deduction is 3.

8.3 billion, an annual increase of 28.


In the income statement, the company’s R & D expenses are 1.

2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 33 over the same period last year.

12%, the growth rate of R & D investment is still at a relatively high level.

In the balance sheet, the contract liabilities at the beginning of the year and the current period are 58 respectively.

00 billion and 37.

1.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 56.

12%, a decrease of 21 in the same period last year.

12%, indicating that the company’s delivery this year has increased compared with last year.

Purchasing cash flow has increased sharply each year, and the proportion of inventory in total assets has reached a new high in the past five years: in the cash flow statement, the first three quarters of purchasing goods and accepting labor services paid cash growth of 85.

32%, 60.

22% vs. 33.

09%, the corresponding figure for the same period last year was -51.

93%, -17.

09% vs -3.

62%, cash paid for purchases increased significantly this year.

At the same time, the inventory surplus at the end of the third quarter was 156.

74ppm, 64% of assets.

14% is the highest value in the past 5 years. Military production is highly planned. The high proportion of inventories indicates that the company’s current production plan is full and it needs a large amount of inventory to ensure production.

  The average values of the inventory and cash flow indicators indicate that the company is currently in a high level of production and delivery. It is expected that the company will benefit from mass production in the future and will maintain long-term stable growth.

The debut of the Zhi 20 National Day military parade will provide guarantee for the company’s stable growth in the future: During the National Day 北京夜网 military parade in 2019, the company’s straight 20 tactical general-purpose helicopter made its public debut.

At the subsequent Fifth China Tianjin International Helicopter Expo, for the first time, four new straight-line tactical general-purpose helicopters of the type-20 were also included. This indicates that the straight-line general-purpose helicopter has begun mass production to accelerate the installation of troops.

The company’s beautiful performance this year is inseparable from the straight 20 package. As a general-purpose 10-ton helicopter, the straight 20 is the world’s most equipped model.

Subsequent Zhi-20 families will also continue to develop, such as strengthening the armed air assault type and shipborne type, so there may be demand for the production of nearly a thousand Zhi-20, the company’s future performance is expected to maintain steady growth throughout the year.

  Investment advice: We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

10 yuan, 1.

38 yuan and 1.

72 yuan, corresponding to PE is 39 times, 31 times and 25 times, respectively, given the “recommended” level.

Risk reminder: straight 20 production progress is less than expected, troop procurement is less than expected

SAIC Group (600104) Quarterly Report Review: Downturn in Passenger Car Industry Under Pressure

SAIC Group (600104) Quarterly Report Review: Downturn in Passenger Car Industry Under Pressure

Investment Highlights Event: The company released the 2019 first quarter report, and Q1 achieved 2001.

92 ppm, a decrease of 16 per year.

18%; net profit attributable to mother 82.

51 ppm, a ten-year average of 15.


  The passenger car industry was sluggish, the company’s sales increased, and its performance was under pressure.

Against the backdrop of the downturn in the Q1 auto market (passenger car sales ranked 13th.

7%), the company’s Q1 sales were 153.

30,000 vehicles, at least 15 per year.


In terms of brands, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM achieved sales of 46.

80,000, 42.

70,000 vehicles in the past decade 8.

80%, 13.

10%; SAIC-GM-Wuling sales reached 15%.

100,000 vehicles, 42.

90,000 vehicles in the past ten years.

50%, 25.


Affected by the decline in sales, Q1’s performance was under pressure and its revenue was broken down16.

18%, net profit attributable to mother decreased by 15.


  The joint venture brand group is stable, and the independent brand is expected to break through one million in the future.

(1) The company’s passenger car market share 北京桑拿洗浴保健 has steadily increased, and the joint venture brand has a solid subsidiary.

At present, the joint venture brand of the company is in a strong cycle, and the Volkswagen brand SUV product lineup is completed. SAIC Audi will increase the profit of bicycles; GM brand domestic XT3, Chevrolet seven-seat SUV and other new products will be launched to increase sales; Wuling brand positioning is accurate, channels sink, competitivenessmaintain.

(2) SAIC passenger cars were the first to enter the smart connected car market. New energy and Internet car sales accounted for more than 40%, and innovative products led the brand upward.

With the popular model RX5, Roewe successfully realized the transformation, and launched the RX3 and RX8 to complement the SUV product line.

In terms of new energy, SAIC’s new energy vehicle sales exceeded 9 in 2018, relying on independently developed world-class Sanden technology.

80,000, accelerating growth among mainstream car companies.

With the start of Zhengzhou Phase II, the production capacity of Shanghai, Nanjing and Zhengzhou will reach 1.1 million, and the sales of independent brands are expected to exceed one million in the future.

  The parts supply system is strong, electrified, and intelligently advanced simultaneously.

In the field of traditional parts, the company’s parts business is mainly composed of Huayu, SAIC and United Electronics, with a wide coverage and a strong supply system.

In terms of electrification, Huayu jointly established Huayu Magna’s production electric drive system assembly, and jointly established Ningde Times with SAIC Times and Times SAIC to produce battery cells and packaging respectively.

The construction of the core parts supply system for the new energy powertrain Sandian system was completed.

Other traditional automobile zero subsidiaries have simultaneously promoted the electrification process, covering various areas of thermal management, chassis and bodywork.

In terms of intelligence, Huayu Automobile has taken the independent research and development route, and millimeter-wave radar has achieved mass production.

  The industry is recovering and the company is expected to benefit first.
China’s auto market has entered a late stage of growth, and the industry’s growth center has declined. At the same time, it has the impact of the macroeconomic downturn. Auto sales will remain under pressure in the short term.
Against the background of stable aggregate demand and stimulating consumption in 2019, automobile sales have substantially improved the stability of the economy. In the second half of the year, benefiting from credit recovery and sales stimulus, automobile sales promoted marginal improvement.

The company’s products are evenly distributed, and its ability to resist risks is strong. Through the completion of SUV products, industry recovery companies are expected to benefit first.

  Earnings forecast: We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers at 368 in 2019/2020/2021.



90 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 3.



53 yuan.

As the leader of the whole vehicle, the company has a solid brand level, a large investment in research and development of independent brands, an early layout of the new four modernizations, and a strong parts supply system.

  Risk reminder: the risk of the decline in passenger car sales, the risk of the joint venture behavior falling short of expectations.

Shandong Publishing (601019) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth and Dividend Proportion

Shandong Publishing (601019) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Steady Growth and Dividend Proportion

Event: Shandong Publishing released the 2018 annual report on the evening of April 13杭州桑拿, and the company actually achieved revenue of 93.

51 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

05%; gradually realize net profit attributable to mother 14.

85 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

8%, of which Q4 decreased by 9 in a single season.


The company plans to distribute 2 for every 10 shares.

9 yuan.

  The expense ratio is generally stable, and the profit margin is rising steadily.

The company’s overall gross profit margin in 2018 was 35.

87%, net interest rate 15.

88%, a slight improvement over 2017.

The three-fee rate and the 2017 ranking are also basically stable.

  The book business grew steadily, and the publishing business suffered a reduction in gross profit margin due to paper.

In terms of products, the revenue growth of teaching aids and general books was 12 respectively.

85% and above 9.

30%, in terms of business, publishing and distribution increased by 12 respectively.

01% vs. 12.


The gross profit margin of the publishing business was relatively stable, and the gross profit margin of the publishing business decreased by 20172.

36pct, we think it is mainly due to rising paper costs.

The company’s paper material fee in 20186.

53 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.


  As a pillar business, teaching materials and teaching aids continued to increase revenue and gross profit.

In 2018, the company’s teaching aid revenue accounted for 73%.

1%, while gross profit accounted for 74.


The contribution of teaching materials to the overall business shows an increasing trend.

  The proportion of dividends continues to increase.

The company plans to pay dividends of 6 in 2018.

50,000 yuan, accounting for 40% of net profit attributable to mothers.

74%, with a dividend payout ratio of 33 in 2017.

63%, an increase of 7.

11 points.

  The cash position is good, and there is no risk of impairment of goodwill, debt repayment, pledge and other risks.

The company has plenty of cash in hand, 50 in 2018.

3.3 billion.There is currently no goodwill, interest-bearing debt and pledges, so there are no related risks.

  The improvement of textbook teaching and auxiliary business performance depends on long-term population growth, short-to-medium term growth through penetration rate increase, profit proportion increase, and cost reduction.

  Shandong is the top three most populous province in the country. The number of births has increased. Since 2014, the number of new students has increased significantly. From 2016 to 2017, the number of new students has led the country for two consecutive years.

  Paper prices are somehow good for publishing.

The price of paper began to increase sharply at the end of 2016, and deviated significantly after peaking in April 2018. Attempts to gradually increase the company’s profits in the future, but due to the reduction in the proportion of paper costs to publishing revenue and the decline in the proportion of publishing business in the company’s business, paperPrice impact is limited.

We estimate that for every 10% decrease in the cost of paper prices, the performance elasticity brought by Shandong Publishing is close to 4%.

  Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that Shandong Publishing will achieve 101 in revenue in 2019-2021.

2.8 billion, 108.

20 ppm, 115.

25 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

31%, 6.

83%, 6.

52%; net profit attributable to mothers was 16 respectively.

3.3 billion, 17.

6.3 billion, 18.

95 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

96%, 7.

95%, 7.

49%; EPS for 2019-2021 are 0.

78 yuan, 0.

84 yuan, 0.

91 yuan.

  Risk prompts: rising paper prices; the downturn in the publishing industry; transition and upgrading are not up to expectations; dividends are up to expectations; market risks are expected to be downside risks.

Gujia Home (603816): Proposed share repurchase for equity incentives to demonstrate long-term development confidence

Gujia Home (603816): Proposed share repurchase for equity incentives to demonstrate long-term development confidence
The company’s recent situationThe company announced that it plans to repurchase the company’s shares with its own funds of 300 million to 600 million US dollars in the next 12 months. The repurchase price does not exceed 50 yuan per share. It is estimated based on the highest repurchase amount and the highest repurchase price.The number of shares purchased was 12 million, accounting for 1 of the total share capital.99% of the shares repurchased this time are used for equity incentives. Comment 1. The repurchase funds have a small financial impact on the company, and the repurchased shares are used for equity incentives to demonstrate long-term development confidence.The maximum amount of the company’s repurchase is 6 trillion, which accounts for the company’s total assets and the proportion of the net assets attributed to the parent is 5, respectively.64%, 11.90%, 1H19 company currency funds 17.900 million US dollars, the account is rich in cash, we expect the release of the repurchase will have a small financial impact on the company. The company’s repurchased shares are all used for equity incentives, continuing the company’s well-known tradition of team incentives (the company also used a stock incentive plan to motivate nearly a hundred core teams in 17 years), which is beneficial to further binding the interests of the top and bottom.The subpoena price of 50 yuan is a 36% premium to the closing price on September 20, demonstrating the confidence of the management team’s subsequent development. 2. Domestic sales promote the reform of the regional retail center system, and foreign sales mostly deal with trade frictions. In terms of domestic sales, the company began to promote the construction of a regional retail center system in the second half of 2018, further diminishing its power at the organizational level and accelerating the response to market changes. At the same time, it increased its efforts to promote the construction of terminal information technology and strengthen channel control.In response to trade frictions, we will expand the consensus with downstream customers to jointly increase tariffs. At the same time, we will comprehensively respond to the impact of tariffs in terms of cost control and product structure optimization. According to the recent announcement, excluding the influence of mergers and acquisitions, the revenue / net profit growth rate of the company in 1H19 was 0.57% / 11.23%, with the company’s internal sales organization structure adjustment effect appearing, marketing efforts increase, we expect the Q3 company’s internal growth rate to try to stabilize and recover. 3. Strengthen the refined management of the target of mergers and acquisitions and improve the synergy effect.In 2018, the company acquired Natuz, Xibao Home, Priority Home and many other companies. We expect that in 2019, the company will focus on the integration of existing targets and improve efficiency. In 1H19, 23 new stores were opened by Natuz.Its investment 天津夜网 in furniture exhibitions, products and brands has produced certain synergies. Priority Home has established a new management board, the procurement system has been completed and benchmarked with the Gujia system. The order volume of major customers in 1H19 has increased significantly.Synergistic development between the two parties after the replacement of the company. Estimates suggest maintaining earnings forecasts.At present, it generally corresponds to 19/16 times 19/16 times P / E, maintain outperforming industry rating, and maintain target price of 42.6 yuan unchanged, corresponding to 19/20 22/18 times P / E, corresponding to 15% growth space. Risks Raw material prices fluctuated sharply, and Sino-US trade friction exceeded expectations.

Zijin Mining (601899): Overseas projects continue to make efforts to publicly issue additional shares approved to optimize financial structure

Zijin Mining (601899): Overseas projects continue to make efforts to publicly issue additional shares approved to optimize financial structure
Performance summary: The company achieved operating income of 671 in the first half of 2019.9.8 billion, an annual increase of 34.90%; net profit attributable to mother 18.5.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.64%; realized non-net profit deduction of 16.57 trillion, a reduction of 30 a year.28%.  Core assets: the company’s output of mineral gold in the first half of the year19.10 tons, an increase of 13 in ten years.18%; output of mineral copper 17.11 for the first time, with an annual increase of 43.The increase of 33% was mainly due to the completion of the flotation system of the Kolwezi copper mine and the commissioning of the wet process system, the second phase of Duobaoshan’s commissioning and the increase in the newly acquired Zijinboer copper industry; the zinc output of the mine was 29.54 for the first time, growing 21 per year.24%, the increase is mainly from the newly acquired Bisha project.The company’s overseas projects continued to develop strength, and the scale of mineral products achieved substantial growth.Among them, after the company took over the Boer copper (gold) mine in Serbia, it made a smooth transition and turned losses into profits; the Kolwezi wet process system was put into full production and entered the ranks of 10-year / grade large-scale copper mines.  Performance interpretation: The company’s output of major mineral products has increased over time, but poor metal prices have dragged down overall performance.The unit weight of mineral copper is 3.56 million / ton, temporarily extended by 3.67%; Mineral zinc unit content 1.160,000 yuan / ton, 27 from the previous decade.twenty two%.From the perspective of profit contribution, mineral copper is still the company’s largest contributor to net profit, contributing a gross profit of 25%.96 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.78%; and the contribution of mineral gold has increased, contributing a gross profit of 18.30 ppm, an increase of 37 in ten years.81%; the contribution of mineral zinc decreased significantly, contributing 10% of gross profit.82 trillion, a decrease of 35 a year.47% (without considering internal intervention).  Financial analysis: From the end to the first half of the year, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 59.67%, ranking increased by 1 in the same period last year.13 budgets; financial costs 8.51 ppm, an increase of 28 per year.84%.The sales and management expenses of the remaining companies increased at least every year, mainly due to the merger of new mergers and acquisitions.97%, higher than 4 in the annual report last year.82%, there is room for further improvement.The company actively promotes the public issuance of A shares. At present, it has been approved by the issuance review committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company’s financial structure will be optimized.  Pre-judgment of prices: The global interest rate cut cycle will start, and the risk aversion will further push up the price of gold; weak terminal demand will drag down 杭州桑拿 the copper price, but the structure caused by insufficient supply of global copper mines in the medium and long term will bring copper prices back to the upward channel; global zincConcentrate supply is loose, terminal demand is weak and zinc prices are under further pressure.  Earnings forecasts and investment advice.It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.18 yuan, 0.22 yuan, 0.28 yuan, corresponding PE is 20 times, 17 times and 13 times.Taking into account that the company is the highest quality mining enterprise in China, with abundant mineral resources reserves, the internationalization progress is continuously accelerating, and the rating of “Buy” is maintained.  Risk reminder: Project construction and production progress may be less than expected, domestic demand may not meet expectations and metal prices may be affected, 北京夜网 non-public issuance progress may be less than expected, and exchange rate risks.

Jiantou Energy (000600) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Consolidated Business Profits Still Focus on Progress of Asset Injection

Jiantou Energy (000600) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Consolidated Business Profits Still Focus on Progress of Asset Injection

Event: China Construction Investment released the third quarter report of 2019.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s operating income was 102 trillion, 0 every other time.

7%; net profit attributable to mother 4.

60,000 yuan, an increase of 63 in ten years.


Among them, the operating income of the company in Q3 2019 was 32.

1 ‰, the ten-year average.

0%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

7 ‰, 24 years ago.


Hebei thermal power dropped reasonably, coal prices fell steadily: 2019Q3 company’s operating income changes by 5.

0%, the decline in the second quarter of 2019 was further expanded. We believe that it is mainly dragged down by the number of hours of thermal power utilization in the Hebei region where the company is located.

Beginning in July 2019, Hebei’s thermal power will gradually turn from positive to negative for many years.

In the first three quarters of 2019, Hebei’s thermal power utilization hours were separated by 145 hours.

We estimate that the utilization hours of Hebei thermal power in 2019Q3 will be 1200 hours, and the year-on-year changes will be -152 hours and 38 hours, respectively. We speculate that the decrease in the utilization hours of Hebei thermal power hours may be related to factors such as external call squeeze.

In terms of coal prices, we calculated that the average price of thermal coal in northern Hebei and southern Hebei in Q3 2019 decreased by 3 each time.

1%, 3.

7%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month.

2%, 1.

3%, cost effective improvement.

Q3 Consolidation business profitability is acceptable: We use the maximum profit and investment income to simply characterize the company’s consolidation business profitability.

The calculation results show that the company’s consolidated business profit in Q3 20191.

95% ten percent, 杭州桑拿 an increase of 48 per year / mo.

5% / 10

8%, profitability is acceptable.

It is obvious that the company’s 2019Q3 investment income turned negative (-0.

23 ppm, which is said to have worsened the earnings of participating companies), and the actual income tax rate for the third quarter of 2018 was low (about 12.

1%), we believe that the above reasons are the number one reason for the company’s third quarter 2019 performance change.

The asset injection of major shareholders is still worth looking forward to: The company intends to acquire 40% of the shares of Qinre Company and 45% of Zhanghe Bay Company, which are owned by the major shareholders, through the issuance of additional shares to the major shareholder of China Construction Investment Group, but it can be approved by the CSRC.

At present, the company is actively demonstrating and revising the issuance plan with all parties. The follow-up progress deserves attention.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: Considering the changes in the company’s regional thermal power utilization hours, the company’s EPS in 2019 is reduced to 0.

38 yuan (0 before adjustment.

40 yuan), the company’s 2019-2021 EPS are expected to be 0.

38, 0.

47, 0.

At 49 yuan, the corresponding PE is 13, 11, and 11 times, and the corresponding PB is 0.

80, 0.

77, 0.
75 times.
The company’s profit will benefit from the decline in coal prices, which is estimated to be at a low level and maintain the “overweight” level.

Risk reminders: On-grid electricity prices are falling more than expected, electricity demand is falling more than expected, coal prices are growing more than expected, generating units are slower than expected, and the risk of asset injection by major shareholders.

High-Energy Environment (603588): Leading strength in soil remediation leads to solid waste layout improvement

High-Energy Environment (603588): Leading strength in soil remediation leads to solid waste layout improvement
Key points of investment: Leading soil remediation with significant competitive advantages.In August 2018, after the Soil Law, the demand for soil remediation market accelerated, and the number of orders increased significantly in the second half of the year.We believe that the rural soil remediation market is in the early stages of opening and that policy and fiscal stimulus are significant.On the basis of nearly 20 years of research and engineering experience in Europe and the United States in the upper part of Europe and the United States, the research results and technologies of soil remediation have resumed rapid development.In 2019, frequent explosions in the chemical industry parks have given rise to the introduction of improvement plans for the chemical industry, which is expected to bring more than 30 billion industrial site repair needs.At the same time, the government’s awareness of exemptions has been further improved, which will help accelerate the release of market demand.As a leader in the soil remediation industry, the company has complete technical reserves and leading R & D capabilities. It has undertaken repair work for many demonstration projects and has been highly recognized by the owner. We believe that the company has achieved a single capability surpass in the field of soil remediation, and it is expected that the business is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of 35%. Hazardous waste under construction projects have room for capacity improvement.The company has been conducting hazardous waste layout since 2014, and currently has an operational capacity of 59.83 lowest exchange rate / year, and 23 lowest exchange 南京桑拿论坛 rate / year of capacity under construction, ranking the forefront.We analyze the supply and demand of hazardous waste disposal in the vicinity of the company’s capacity under construction, and we can find that Leshan, Liangshan Prefecture, and Qinglan hazardous waste are all in corresponding areas with insufficient capacity, and there is room for future capacity release. The capacity of waste incineration is expected to increase significantly.In the field of domestic waste disposal, the company’s Hetian, Liyang and Yueyang projects under construction are expected to be put into operation in 2019. By then, the company’s waste incineration operation capacity will be increased to 4,900 tons / day. Increasing operating income will also improve the stability of the company’s cash flow. Higher operating stability in the short term.Although the company’s asset-liability ratio is currently at a relatively high level, subsequent conversion of convertible bonds will reduce the company’s debt ratio.At the same time, the company has no long-term debt maturity in 2019, and should only pay interest on the bonds, with little redemption pressure.The company still has $ 600 million of green debt quota unused, and the balance of monetary funds at the end of the first quarter was 11.US $ 3.3 billion, and the business model of the incineration project is mature. It is easier to finance through project loans, and it can extend short-term repetition. It can cover about US $ 2 billion in capital requirements. It has high operating stability in the short term.In the future, the company’s newly added 3,200 tons / day of domestic waste incineration capacity and reconstruction and expansion of hazardous waste projects will enter the capacity climbing stage to bring stable operating cash flow and reduce the company’s cash flow pressure. Profit forecast, estimation analysis and investment advice: We believe that the three major business areas of the company’s environmental restoration, hazardous waste disposal, and domestic waste incineration have a high degree of prosperity. At present, the average value of on-hand orders in the three major areas of the company is sufficient to support the company.The growth in the next two years is expected to be 0 for the company’s EPS in 19-21.61\0.76\0.95, corresponding to the company’s closing price of 10 on July 25.33 yuan, PE for 19-21 is 16 respectively.92\13.58\10.85.We combined the absolute and relative estimates, and concluded that the company expected a reasonable estimate interval of 12.20-14.64 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: The release rate of the soil remediation market is slower than expected, the company’s supplementary orders are smaller than expected, the company’s project progress is lower than expected, and debt and financing risks.

ZTE (000063): Focusing on Steady Development of 5G Main Channel

ZTE (000063): Focusing on Steady Development of 5G Main Channel

Event: ZTE announced its 2018 annual report, with total revenue of $ 85.5 billion, every 21.

4%; of which, the operator’s network business income is 57.1 billion US dollars, which is extended by 10 every year.

5%, better than expected; net profit attributable to mother is 69.

800 million US dollars, which is basically a 1 billion US dollar banknote. During the “chip embargo” business stagnation, provision for impairment of long-term equity investment in Nubia10.

9.4 billion.

The company also announced that the net profit in the first quarter of 2019 was 800 million to 1.2 billion, in line with our expectations, indicating that the company’s operating status has completely returned to normal.

In 2019, operators’ capital expenditure expansion has transformed for three consecutive years, achieving about 5.

Positive growth of 6%.

Recently, the three major operators announced their capital expenditure plans for 2019, totaling approximately 3031 trillion, with a long-term growth of 5.

6%, to reverse the drift situation for three consecutive years.

Among them, the increase in wireless side spending.

Since the second quarter of 2018, the mobile traffic of mobile users across the country has exploded. It is estimated that the per capita mobile traffic of 4G users in the first quarter of 2019 is more than three times that of the same period in 2018.

The explosion of mobile traffic has led to a sharp increase in the pressure on 4G networks. However, the current 5G network is “far away from water to quench the thirst.” 4G network construction in 2019 has exceeded expectations. China Unicom ‘s bidding for mobile 4G base stations and antennas has exceededmarket expectation.

At the same time, it is expected that 5G spending in 2019 will reach 34 billion U.S. dollars, and the construction of 80,000 to 120,000 base stations for 5G base stations will become 天津夜网 the core driving force for lateral wireless growth in the second half of the year.

We expect that the operator’s spending on the wireless side in 2019 is expected to grow by 15-20% per year.

This provides strong support for ZTE’s 2019 performance.

5G investment and construction will be application-driven and gradually developed.

Some investors believe that 5G is like 3G / 4G. Once the operator obtains license distribution again, it will be “2-3”, and then it will enter the trend.

We believe that 5G investment will be application-driven. Because applications and business models in the 5G era are not clearly presented, network construction, terminals, and applications need to be developed in coordination, so 5G is destined to be a gradual process.

Therefore, we believe that the prosperity of 5G will continue to be relatively long, and ZTE will focus on the main channel of 5G, and the company’s continuous improvement of its business will also be relatively strong.

Focus on the 5G main channel.

ZTE has carried out 5G cooperation with 30 operators around the world, distributed 10,000 large-scale MIMO base stations, and NFV has more than 400 commercial and PoC cases worldwide. In the common core, the core network, end-to-end network slicing, edge computing and other technological innovations andThe application is in a leading position; ZTE’s self-developed core chips such as baseband and IF remain leading in performance, integration, and performance, ensuring product performance and large-scale commercial capabilities.

In the field of 5G industry applications, joint operators and partners carry out 5G business innovation demonstrations in vertical industries such as big video, Internet of Vehicles, Industrial Internet, and smart grid, strengthen strategic cooperation with key vertical industry partners, and jointly promote research and development of 5G industry applications.Development.

Profit forecast: Overall, 4G beyond expectations is the core driving force for ZTE’s performance growth in 2019, and the expansion of 5G construction scale in 2020 will continue to drive ZTE’s performance growth.

We forecast ZTE’s net profit for 2019-2021.

900 million, 58.

600 million, 73.

9 trillion, corresponding to the closing price and market value on March 27, 2019, PE is 26 times, 19 times, and 15 times respectively, maintaining the “prudent increase” rating.

Risk reminders: Domestic equipment vendors are hindered from expanding overseas markets, and greater internal market competition; 5G network construction expansion is stronger than expected; trade wars are intensified or technology is blocked.


The view of fitness on the bull market after the return of the box shock is a high probability event

The view of fitness on the bull market after the return of the box shock is a high probability event

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  ”Red Weekly” special author Xiamen Tao Dan experienced repeated upswings since last Tuesday, A shares have gradually come out of the shadow of the 南京夜网论坛 first day of the post-holiday crash, and the repair is in good condition, showing the strong price of A shares.

However, will the SSE Index rise above the 3000-point integer mark and enter a new round of bull market?

The author believes that it needs to be treated with caution.

After the early rapid correction of the downward test support, the original prototype of the head and shoulders breakthrough has been destroyed. The return of the market to the box shock is a high probability event, and investors can be prepared.

  What is cabinet shock?

Pressure on the top and support on the bottom are the best manifestations of this trend.

From the perspective of fundamental factors, China’s economy is optimistic in the long-term during the transformation and upgrading. Abundant liquidity has also provided good support for the 杭州桑拿网 currently expected A-shares. The general trend of continued foreign holdings has not changed. The three major results are AThere is a key underpinning in the stock.

Despite the influence of epidemic factors, the rapid adjustment of the two trading days before and after the Spring Festival has effectively released short-term kinetic energy and proved the bottom support of the box near the 2700 point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. This has become the consensus of most investors.

However, the short-term impact of the epidemic on the economy is by no means negligible. In particular, the weakening of demand or insufficient start-up in some industries, and the impact of the quarterly report or even the intermediate report is foreseeable.

Although it is still in the annual report release period, the quality of the first quarter report cannot be completely corrected for the time being, and the market is well-known for rebounding. However, after the announcement of the second quarter and the release of the first quarter report, the thunder phenomenon of some companies may disappear.After the company’s recent strong rebound, it will be under pressure from a quarterly report.

Therefore, before the first quarterly report is released in April, if the stock index rises to a certain extent, the second quarter will face some adjustment pressure on the box.

The author believes that a high probability of 2700-3100 points will become the operating interval of this slowly repaired new cabinet.

  From a technical point of view, the “press up and down support” is also traceable.

Beginning in 2015, the Shanghai Stock Index was hit by an obvious downward trend line. In 2019, it made a strong attack and broke through in April of that year. The high point before the Spring Festival this year also fell back.

From 2008 to 2014, the Shanghai Stock Index was also continuously suppressed by an obvious downward trend line, and it took 6 years to finally break through.

If we refer to the previous experience, it will take 6 years for the Shanghai Stock Index to finally break through and stabilize this trend line. Then 2021 will be the best time for effective standing.

As a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will keep the box from spreading in 2020, which is also time to exchange space and wait for the support of the long-term upward trend line since 2005, thus forming a relatively perfect breakthrough (see photo).

Therefore, this box is also the “last shock” on the eve of the Shanghai Stock Index bull market’s official breakthrough. Waiting patiently is the best option for most investors, even the only option.

  Although the stock index box has limited space for sorting, the box also means that the broader market performance is relatively stable, which has laid the foundation for the wonderful structural bull market of individual stocks. The author focuses on the opportunities of low-tech stocks and potential stocks.

Recently, the technology theme funds continue to sell well, which is expected to form a positive cycle effect. For some technology stocks that are still at a low level and have unique competition or fair incentives, they have the potential to rediscover value.

The species that the author focuses on are: COSCO Haike, Dongfang Guoxin, Yinxin Technology, Neusoft Cardiovascular, Gold Card Smart, etc.

In addition, the concept stocks of the recent stock market have become active again, showing that funds are digging the value of related companies. Among them, Shenneng shares were listed by Yangtze Power, which represents the recognition of value stocks by industrial capital. The power stocks with abundant cash flow have a mapping effect.The key species to observe are Qianyuan Power and Star Power.

The Liaoning Chengda was listed as having both ownership and GF Securities, Chengda Biological and other high-quality hidden assets to support the related, and the distribution of the distribution, the new shareholders holding a card has the effect of four or two pounds.

Therefore, some stocks are scattered, and individual stocks with high-quality listed companies or NEEQ shares may also be listed in the future. The types of focus that the author has observed are Haixin and Yatai Group.

For investors who are not good at seizing the fluctuation opportunities of individual stocks for a long period of time, it is also a good choice to use static braking and continue to invest in low-estimation index ETF funds. Low-level mechanical buying may be able to reap unexpected surprises.

Lixun Precision (002475): The outlook for the first half of the year exceeds the expectations, and consumer electronics and communications are in full swing

Lixun Precision (002475): The outlook for the first half of the year exceeds the expectations, and consumer electronics and communications are in full swing
Event: The company announced in the first quarter of 2019 that it realized operating income of 90 billion yuan in the first quarter, net profit attributable to 武汉夜生活网 its mother6.1.6 billion, with an annual growth rate of 85%, and the performance growth range for the first half of the year is expected to be 70-90%. Comments: 1. The first quarter results were on the high side, and the trend exceeded the market expectations. The company announced that the first quarter revenue was 90 billion yuan, an increase of 67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent6.1.6 billion, an annual increase of 85%, is in the 70-90% range of the previous notice, and the corresponding EPS is 0.15 yuan and deduct 5 for non-net profit.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 108%, again against the trend to exceed market expectations!The company explained the contradiction in advance. Although the overall economic environment of the industry in which it is located is challenging, the company is based on the comprehensive planning of consumer electronics products and customers in the early stage, the years of advanced communications, industrial and automotive electronics products and customers, and its own strong project implementation capabilitiesAdvance notice, the company’s performance will continue to achieve rapid growth.In the preliminary financial indicators, Q1 gross margin was 18.89% is slightly lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the volume of Airpods with a slightly lower gross profit margin. We judge that the new and old versions of Q1 headsets have been replaced by about 5 million units, and the upgraded version of Airpods has a lower Q1 replacement and climbing costsThe gross profit margin of the company, but the company’s motors, acoustics and other components profitability is better than the same period last year, the company’s overall net profit rate of 7%, more than the same period last year; Q1 sales and management expense ratio fell by 1% to 2.87%, which shows that the scale effect has further improved, and R & D investment6.8.8 billion, an annual increase of 68.9%, R & D accounted for 7.6% continued to improve.It is worth noting that of the non-recurring gains and losses of 97.82 million, 77.29 million were forward foreign exchange gains hedged by the company, which hedged some of the RMB’s appreciation of exchange losses, which also illustrates the company’s neutral and stable financial standards.In the end, the company’s operating cash flow was 30% lower than last year, a decrease of 5.6 billion, mainly due to the preparation of new products such as airpods, it also means that the second quarter of business flexibility is considerable2, the outlook for the second quarter again exceeded expectations, consumer electronics and communications business in full swing. The company expects that the growth rate of the first half of the year will be 70-90%, corresponding to 14.0-15.The net profit of 700 million yuan is consistent with the outlook range of Q1. The median value of the interval corresponds to a net profit of 8 in Q2.700 million, an annual increase of 76.5% month-on-month growth of 41.2%, once again more than expected!Considering that in 18Q2, there was more than one billion US dollars of exchange gains but not in the same period of this year, and 19Q2 also has amortization of tens of millions of incentive costs, which means that the actual growth rate of Q2 is higher.We believe that the upgraded version of AirPods is concentrated in Q2 (the ASP of ordinary and wireless charging boxes is expanded and the profitability is improved after changing the line and climbing). IPhone sales are back to normal levels after Q1 is reduced in price and destocked (parts profitability)(Optimization) and Huawei ‘s mobile phone exceeded expectations, Q2 ‘s continued heavy traffic in the communications business, and the company ‘s overall automation and internal management efficiency improved, which pushed Q2 ‘s performance to continue to exceed expectations ‘s high growth. 3. The annual high growth in 19 years is determined, and the logic of the increase in the next three years is clear. Looking forward to 19 years, we believe that Airpods will usher in a great year of innovation in the 19th year, and a major revision is expected in the second half of the year. ASP and penetration rate are expected to further increase, while Luxion fully participates in new product research and development support, and capacity planning is expected to continue in the 19th year.Embracing real growth, watch parts and complete machine innovation and business breakthroughs also surpassed expectations.In addition, in terms of mobile phones, even considering the pessimistic expectations of the decline in Apple’s sales volume, as new categories are gradually increasing in volume, and motors, acoustics, etc. will continue to grow, the growth trend of the mobile phone business is still clear.In addition, the company’s outstanding technology and customer card slot merger 5G communication business in 19 years is expected to usher in further volume growth of nearly 100% is worth looking forward to. In addition, the car layout is also continuing to advance, the overall 19-year incremental logic is clear, and the trend continues to be highGrowth can be expected; and the 5G innovation year 2020-21 and the company’s new category breakthroughs are more worth looking forward to.If we have been renewed, Luxun’s comprehensive breakthroughs in the consumer electronics, communications and automotive businesses will make three years of high growth clearly visible.The company continued to launch two phases of equity incentives in 18-19 years. It also plays a role in attracting mid- to high-end management and technical talents, maintaining team stability and motivating employees. 4. Maintain strong recommendation and raise target price to 33 yuan. We are optimistic about Lixun from the bottom up, through the share of feeds, expanding categories, extending new areas, improving management and financial efficiency, and achieving high growth against the trend, it is a rare high-quality company with clear long, medium and short logics;Consider the unexpected factors of wearable wireless earphones, watches, and communications business, and the amortization costs of the two-year distribution incentives for 18-19 (19/20/21 total 2).82/2.37/1.5.7 billion), we forecast net profit attributable to mothers for 19/20/21 to be 38.5/54.5/75.0 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.94/1.32/1.82 yuan, corresponding to 28/20/14 times the current 杭州桑拿网 continuous PE. Under the three-year 40 +% compound growth trend, the current continued underestimation is still relatively low. We maintain the “strongly recommended-A” rating and raise the target price to 33 yuan, which is equivalent.25 times PE in 20 years, long-term bullish on the company to catch up with the market value of international giants such as Amphenol / Tyco. Risk factors.Sales of major customers were lower than expected, new product introduction exceeded expectations, and price competition intensified.