SAIC Group (600104) Quarterly Report Review: Downturn in Passenger Car Industry Under Pressure
Investment Highlights Event: The company released the 2019 first quarter report, and Q1 achieved 2001.
92 ppm, a decrease of 16 per year.
18%; net profit attributable to mother 82.
51 ppm, a ten-year average of 15.
The passenger car industry was sluggish, the company’s sales increased, and its performance was under pressure.
Against the backdrop of the downturn in the Q1 auto market (passenger car sales ranked 13th.
7%), the company’s Q1 sales were 153.
30,000 vehicles, at least 15 per year.
In terms of brands, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC GM achieved sales of 46.
70,000 vehicles in the past decade 8.
10%; SAIC-GM-Wuling sales reached 15%.
100,000 vehicles, 42.
90,000 vehicles in the past ten years.
Affected by the decline in sales, Q1’s performance was under pressure and its revenue was broken down16.
18%, net profit attributable to mother decreased by 15.
The joint venture brand group is stable, and the independent brand is expected to break through one million in the future.
(1) The company’s passenger car market share 北京桑拿洗浴保健 has steadily increased, and the joint venture brand has a solid subsidiary.
At present, the joint venture brand of the company is in a strong cycle, and the Volkswagen brand SUV product lineup is completed. SAIC Audi will increase the profit of bicycles; GM brand domestic XT3, Chevrolet seven-seat SUV and other new products will be launched to increase sales; Wuling brand positioning is accurate, channels sink, competitivenessmaintain.
(2) SAIC passenger cars were the first to enter the smart connected car market. New energy and Internet car sales accounted for more than 40%, and innovative products led the brand upward.
With the popular model RX5, Roewe successfully realized the transformation, and launched the RX3 and RX8 to complement the SUV product line.
In terms of new energy, SAIC’s new energy vehicle sales exceeded 9 in 2018, relying on independently developed world-class Sanden technology.
80,000, accelerating growth among mainstream car companies.
With the start of Zhengzhou Phase II, the production capacity of Shanghai, Nanjing and Zhengzhou will reach 1.1 million, and the sales of independent brands are expected to exceed one million in the future.
The parts supply system is strong, electrified, and intelligently advanced simultaneously.
In the field of traditional parts, the company’s parts business is mainly composed of Huayu, SAIC and United Electronics, with a wide coverage and a strong supply system.
In terms of electrification, Huayu jointly established Huayu Magna’s production electric drive system assembly, and jointly established Ningde Times with SAIC Times and Times SAIC to produce battery cells and packaging respectively.
The construction of the core parts supply system for the new energy powertrain Sandian system was completed.
Other traditional automobile zero subsidiaries have simultaneously promoted the electrification process, covering various areas of thermal management, chassis and bodywork.
In terms of intelligence, Huayu Automobile has taken the independent research and development route, and millimeter-wave radar has achieved mass production.
The industry is recovering and the company is expected to benefit first.
China’s auto market has entered a late stage of growth, and the industry’s growth center has declined. At the same time, it has the impact of the macroeconomic downturn. Auto sales will remain under pressure in the short term.
Against the background of stable aggregate demand and stimulating consumption in 2019, automobile sales have substantially improved the stability of the economy. In the second half of the year, benefiting from credit recovery and sales stimulus, automobile sales promoted marginal improvement.
The company’s products are evenly distributed, and its ability to resist risks is strong. Through the completion of SUV products, industry recovery companies are expected to benefit first.
Earnings forecast: We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers at 368 in 2019/2020/2021.
90 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 3.
As the leader of the whole vehicle, the company has a solid brand level, a large investment in research and development of independent brands, an early layout of the new four modernizations, and a strong parts supply system.
Risk reminder: the risk of the decline in passenger car sales, the risk of the joint venture behavior falling short of expectations.