Jinjia Co., Ltd. (002191): “Big Packaging + New Tobacco” layout steadily landing optimistic about long-term growth
The company released its 18 annual report: Strategically achieved revenue 33.
7.4 billion (+14.
56%), net profit attributable to mother 7.
2.5 billion (+26.
27%), deducting non-net profit 6.
9.2 billion (+26.
Among them 18Q4 income 9.
9.7 billion (+17.
90%), net profit attributable to mother 1.
800,000 yuan (+29.
37%), deducting non-net profit1.
7.2 billion (+35.
18 years of non-recurring profits and losses totaled 33.12 million yuan, of which entrusted wealth management income was 25.02 million yuan.
The company intends to distribute cash dividends to all shareholders for every 10 shares3.
00 yuan, the dividend ratio reaches 60.
59%, and it is expected that the annual dividend ratio will not be less than 50% in the next three years.
The sales volume of the main business of cigarette labels has grown steadily, and the structure has continued to be optimized.
69% to 11556.
2 trillion, the industry is expected to complete sales of 4,743.
520,000 boxes (10 years increase 0.
98%, converted by 50,000 sticks = 1 case).
Under the slight increase in industry sales and structural upgrades, the company’s main business of cigarette labeling achieved revenue of 25%.
6.6 billion (+8.
05%), gross profit margin of 45.
06% was flat last year, with overall sales reaching 3.53 million boxes (+7.
97%), among which the sales of high-margin fine cigarettes increased by 12%.
49% (expected to exceed 500,000 cases), significantly benefiting from tobacco consumption upgrades.
In addition, the subsidiary Chongqing Hongsheng has 18 years of income4.
7.3 billion (+27.
6%) and net profit of 4168.
52%), orders and performance resumed growth, is expected to contribute investment income of about 27 million yuan.
In terms of raw materials, the subsidiary, Toyota, is meeting the needs of the group’s internal laser paper film and other packaging materials, actively expanding its outreach customers, and achieving a net profit of 6,899.
10,000 yuan (+7.
The rapid growth of color box business continued to explore new customers: the company’s fine color box business was integrated to achieve revenue4.
4.6 billion (+67.
09%), contributing 13.
23% (9 in the same period last year.
07%), gross profit margin increased by 5.
34pct to 23.
52%, due to the increase in orders and the maximization of production capacity.
(1) The premium cigarette case is expected to achieve 3 trillion (+ 90%) revenue, and the customer share continues to increase; (2) The wine package is expected to achieve 47 million yuan (+ 90%) in revenue, and cooperation with Moutai is progressing smoothly. Shenren Packaging has been in the market for 18 yearsIncome 2.
600 million (+ 6%), net profit of 33.71 million (-36%), dragged down by the expansion of the factory is not expected, and is expected to contribute about 10 million investment income, so the company has also achieved well-known liquor brands such as “Jinjiu”, “Red Star Erguotou”, “Jiang Xiaobai” cooperation.
(3) 3C Packaging is expected to realize revenue of 67 million yuan, and the company has successively obtained the qualification of qualified suppliers of new tobacco products such as British American Tobacco, Renault Tobacco, Philip Morris International, Yue Ke and other well-known brands.
Xintuo’s benchmark liquor company Wuliangye, the wine bag is expected to enter the heavy volume period: On April 11, 19th, the company announced that it and Wuliangye accompanied the exquisite printing to jointly fund a joint venture company to start a tobacco and wine packaging business cooperation.After the supply chain system, another major breakthrough in the field of wine packaging has laid a foundation for the development of other liquor brands.
In 2018, Chinese liquor enterprises above the designated size achieved an output of 871.
20,000 kiloliters (+3.
1%), and the overall growth is stable; Wuliangye’s commercial wine sales reached 19 in 18 years.
16 positive (+6.
4%), based on a rough estimate of 10 yuan per wine box, Wuliangye wine box orders can reach 3 to 4 billion.
In the future, Jinjia is expected to take orders for some Wuliangye wine bags, which will drive the growth of the company’s boutique wine box business.
Deepening the layout of new tobacco business is expected to benefit first: According to Euromonitor International’s estimates, the number of consumers of new tobacco products in 18 years will exceed 40 million, and it is expected to grow to 64 million by 2022; the value of new tobacco products in 18 years will be USD 24.7 billion (+45.
8%), of which electronic cigarettes are about 145.
US $ 200 million (+ 27%), iQOS represented approximately US $ 10.2 billion of heated non-combustible tobacco products, which nearly doubled.
Emerging companies stepped up their efforts to develop new tobacco business, established a joint venture with Xiaomi Technology, a subsidiary of Xiaomi, and its new tobacco products are expected to be available in the first half of 19; and Jiayu, a subsidiary of Yunnan Tobacco, a subsidiary of China Tobacco, was establishedScience and technology carried out research, production and marketing activities of new tobacco smoking sets.
We believe that domestic new-type tobacco products are ready to take off, and the company’s early layout has benefited from the deep promotion.
Expenses were well controlled and investment income increased: internal company gross profit margin43.
66%, a slight decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.
45pct, which is due to the increase in the proportion of color box business in terms of gross profit margin.
The total cost rate during the period decreased by one.
21 points to 15.
97%, of which the selling expense ratio is also reduced by zero.
1 point to 3.
47%, the management + R & D expense rate is reduced by 0.
6pct to 12.
67%, due to the decrease in interest expenses, the financial expense ratio also decreased by zero.
51pct to -0.
Initial investment net income was 78.52 million (+125.
25%), due to the increase in wealth management income and investment income from associates.
Taken together, the company’s net profit attributable to its parent increased by 2 pct to 21.
At the end of the period, the company’s bills receivables and accounts receivable 8.
7.9 billion (+0 from the beginning of the period).
900 million), accounts receivable turnover days reduced 北京桑拿洗浴保健 several times.
35 days to 76.
Preliminary net operating cash flow of the company 8.
5.3 billion (+ 4%).
The “big package + new tobacco” layout has landed smoothly and is optimistic about long-term growth: The company’s main business of tobacco labeling is positioned at the high end, and it is expected to expand steadily under the trend of structural upgrading of the tobacco industry. At the same time, it will vigorously develop the gift box business, and cooperate with Maotai, Wuliangye and other brand wine companies.The cooperation has gradually entered into a good situation, and the volume of wine package business can be expected; development, the company actively cultivates a new tobacco sunrise industry, and is committed to benefiting from the policy.
The company actively implemented share repurchase, and the one-year repurchase program was completed on March 5, 2019, and gradually repurchased 2996.
390,000 shares, accounting for 2% of the company’s current total share capital, with a turnover of 2.
300 million, firm development confidence.
Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect to achieve revenue of 38 in 19-21, respectively.
8.3 billion, an increase of 14.
7% / 15.
1% / 14.
1%; net profit attributable to mother 9.
1.7 billion, an increase of 25.
0% / 20.
The current priority corresponding to PE is 23.
25X / 15.
98X, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk warning: New business development fails to meet expectations, tobacco industry expectations exceed expectations