Oupai Home (603833): Multi-channel + Multi-category consolidation leading faucet, large-scale home furnishing is expected to contribute a considerable increase
[Event]Europa released its 2018 annual report and achieved 115 revenue.
09 million yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
53%, net profit attributable to mother 15.
7.2 billion, an increase of 20 in ten years.
90%, an increase of 25 in the next ten years.
Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 revenue increased by 31 in advance.
6% / 21.
2% / 10.
7% / 18.
0%, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 32 each year.
5% / 32.
9% / 22.
6% / 4.
The company’s 2018 performance is in line with expectations. It is expected that revenue will increase by 15% annually in 2019, total operating costs will increase by 15%, and net profit will increase by 20%.
[Comment]1) The cabinet keeps stable, the wardrobe develops rapidly, and the wooden door bathroom grows rapidly.
On the income side, ① custom cabinets: income grows by 7 per year.
7% to 57.
700 million US dollars, although the industry penetration rate is high, the growth rate is the same as the land, and squeezed by hardcover, but Europe sent to adopt omni-channel marketing, a net increase of 126 stores to 2,276, force installation + e-commerce + bulkChannels: Improve the efficiency of traditional channels, improve products and services, empower dealers, and grow revenue steadily.
② Customized wardrobe: The income increases by 25 every year.
9% to 41.
500 million US dollars, although the industry competition is intensifying and hardcover assembly and diversion, the penetration rate and market share still have room for growth. The company has a net increase of 271 stores to 2,113, optimizing 杭州桑拿 whole house packages, enriching promotional methods, and draining hardcover projects., Seize the share and increase the value of customer orders, and rapid growth in revenue.
③European wooden door: revenue growth rate of 49.
5%, a net increase of 116 to 825 stores, upgrade products and storefronts, improve e-commerce / assembly / engineering channels, and drive sales of supporting products.
④ European-style bathroom: revenue growth rate of 47.
At 7%, investment promotion accelerated, with a net increase of 191 to 559 stores, strengthening research and development, and rapid growth in shower rooms and smart toilets.
Therefore, the corresponding leading drainage effect and channel realizing ability, the new category of Europa has grown rapidly.
⑤ Aubrey: Revenue growth rate is 32.
0%, the net increase of 96 stores to 935, transform terminal operations, improve package form, build Tmall platform, confirm the e-commerce O2O path.
2) The effects of the large home furnishings are beginning to appear, and the conversion channels are fully drained.
① The large-scale home furnishings landed quickly. Oupai took the lead in adopting a model of direct cooperation with local decoration leaders and empowering brands, products and services to gradually flow into the entrance and quickly grab share. Currently, 22 cities have been installed in the whole furnishings.Yibin and Changsha have matured, and the overall order of cabinet assembly exceeded 3.
② In the context of the traffic entrance, Europa developed its channels in an all-round way. In addition to the whole installation, it gradually strengthened its cooperation with large real estate developers, responding to the trend of accelerating the advancement of refined decoration, and its bulk income increased by 47.
0% to 14.
1.8 billion yuan, accounting for 12.
3%; Improve the perfect online layout, e-commerce drainage accounted for 20% of cabinet revenue in 18 years, and e-commerce drainage accounted for 23 of wooden door revenue.
In addition, new stores such as Gome stores, community stores, and shopping malls will be added to realize all-round drainage. 3) Strengthened cost control and significantly improved gross profit margin.
The overall gross profit margin of Europai increased by 3.
86pct to 38.
38%, in terms of products, the gross profit margin of cabinets / wardrobes / bathrooms increased by 3.
2pct to 39.
8% / 42.
0% / 26.
5%, the wooden door drops 2.
3pct to 13.
6%; by distribution channel, gross profit margin of distribution / bulk increased by 3.
5 points to 35.
7% / 49.
5%; in terms of brands, the European gross margin increased by 4.
6pct to 39.
9%, Opalin fell by 3.
8 points to 26.
Improved, the company strengthened cost control, increased production efficiency, labor and manufacturing costs decreased; replaced, the company’s marketing direction was upgraded from single category to full space, using the whole house package, kitchen clothes and clothing-wood integration sales model, and increased home accessoriesSales, thereby increasing customer prices and increasing profits.
4) The expense ratio increased slightly during the period.
Selling expense ratio rose by 0.
5 points to 10.
2%, mainly due to competitive pressure, the company used promotions to allow profits to grab share, advertising costs increased; management expense rate rose 0.
4 points to 6.
7%, mainly due to the increase in employee compensation, as well as the increase in depreciation and office expenses at the production base; the R & D expense ratio increased by 2.
7 points to 5.
5%, mainly due to the company’s efforts in information production to improve profitability and large-scale home furnishing base.
Finance costs expense -0.
3% (0 in the same period last year).
03%), mainly due to the increase in interest income and exchange losses.
The period expense ratio increased and the non-operating income decreased (the government subsidy decreased by 69.
7% to 0.
25 ppm), the company’s net profit margin rose by only 0.
3 points to 13.
5) Operating capacity has been slightly reduced.
Due to the continuous increase in the proportion of major businesses with the problem of account occupation, the company’s operating net cash flow increased for ten years.
5%, the growth rate has improved; the receivables turnover rate from 69.8 expected 53.
9, asset turnover rate from 1.
28 expected 1.
11, plus the equity multiplier decreases, so the ROE is 28.
5% interest rate 22.
6) Looking ahead, the 19-year performance is expected to grow steadily.
① In the short term, the downturn in real estate demand in the early stage
8%) is expected to improve margins, the current second-hand housing and first-tier and second-tier new house transactions are picking up, and the improvement of the financing environment is driving the completion upward.
Although custom homes are subject to the pressure of penetration increase and hardcover diversion, Oupai tried multiple formats (such as integrated marketing channels), developed multiple categories (such as bathroom wooden doors), and implemented large homes based on traditional big homes.It is expected to bring considerable performance volume.
The company expects revenue growth of 15% in 19 years to maintain steady growth.
② In the long run, the front-end and traditional channels are still sinking space. Bulk and e-commerce will continue to draw in (Opeli will deepen the e-commerce path), and through the release of brand effects, dealer optimization and terminal empowerment, channel efficiency will be further improved.Promotion.
Scale, the Chengdu base expands its production capacity base after it is put into production, at the same time, the company accelerates the advancement of informatization, improves profitability and operating efficiency, reduces error rates to improve service quality, and consolidates scale non-standard production capacity.
Investment suggestion: We continue to be optimistic about the company’s endogenous growth capabilities and long-term competitive advantages, and judge that the assembly channel will mature in 19 years, and it is expected to contribute to a stable and substantial performance increase.
We expect EPS to be 4 in 2019-2021.
04 yuan, the corresponding PE is 26.
9X, maintaining “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Real estate sales are sluggish, competition in the industry is intensifying, and big homes are less than expected.